Remarks On My Predictions In Year 1 Of Corona

Revisiting my musings and remarks from the first year of the pandemic, I am surprised about how much of my predictions were true. Others, but fewer, were very wrong though. And a lot of assumptions about the virus or the pandemic were based on very incomplete knowledge and were hence destined to be incorrect.

But see yourself:

On 2020-05-06 I wrote: "We have reached a phase where two antagonists, economy on one side and scientists on the other, are deciding on the anti-lockdown measures. STILL RIGHT

On 2020-06-06 I wrote: "The Imperial College says that without lockdown (in 11 European nations) almost twice as many people would have died than in an average year. Thus, future focus in Europe will be on clustered virus outbreaks and their containment. These outbreaks will probably be caused by people returning to work and by people travelling bigger distances, particularly the holidaymakers." PARTIALLY WRONG

On 2020-07-11 I admitted that I was wrong for saying in April that wearing masks was not useful.

On 2020-07-15 I mentioned what was later came to be known Post-Covid-Symptoms. "Covid-19 suddenly would become like AIDS: one mistake and you have problems for life." TRUE but only for a small fraction of cases

On 2020-07-18 I wrote: "I am concerned that this denial of reality [in the U.S.] will have long-term effects on the economy, especially as some of the workforce protection programs are slated to run out. The Airline industry has already announced massive layoffs. A friend of mine thinks that Wall Street is holding off to placate Trump. And if Biden were to be elected president, they could then give up the pretence and stocks could slump." PARTIALLY WRONG

On 2020-07-24 I wrote: "Masks will be here to stay. Social distancing will be followed by emotional distancing and we will get used to it. Travelling will remain less carefree. Life will be less spontaneous. Life will not be like it used to for years to come. But we will cope." PARTIALLY RIGHT

On 2020-07-26 I predicted: 
- Big cities will become less attractive due to increased home office. WRONG
- Smaller cities will be changed by an increased influx of more affluent and worldly people. WRONG
- Teaching will include less presence and more remote learning. WRONG
- Business travel will be partially replaced by video conferencing and remote operating, particularly for meetings with lesser importance. RIGHT
- The airline passenger numbers will be reduced to levels of the 1970s. WRONG
- Leisure travel will become more local. PARTIALLY RIGHT
- Bicycling will become more prevalent. PARTIALLY RIGHT
- Social distancing risks to boil over to emotional distancing. PARTIALLY RIGHT
- Businesses built on physical presence will morph into something requiring less presence or they will go away. RIGHT for online ordering

On 2020-08-05 I wrote about the pandemic's effects on the environment, pollution, electricity use, air travel: "And even though most of this will evaporate like thin air, a lot of the economic stimulus plans have built-in green components, with a lasting effect after the worst of the crisis has passed." RIGHT

On 2020-08-10 I predicted that "business travel will never rebound to levels before Corona. And budget travellers will have to pay more." RIGHT

On 2020-08-26 I wrote: "So, unlike the measles or mumps, if you had had Covid-19 there is no guarantee you can't get it a second time." RIGHT

On 2020-09-16 I wrote on the topic of increased discussions about vaccinations and pressure to get vaccinated against Covid: "the price we pay for a Corona slowdown [through a vaccine] could be a surge in flu cases, measles or other diseases that were under control until now." PARTIALLY RIGHT

On 2020-09-23 I showed that Coronavirus infections in the US correlate with voting patterns. While this was true for that wave, the year 2022 has shown very puzzling data, not only in the US, because areas of little vaccination and little mask wearing do not necessarily have a higher incidence. PARTIALLY WRONG

On 2020-11-14 I unveiled the classical "Western" nations as the true problem child for Corona infections. This holds still true today and can be extended to monkey pox. RIGHT

On 2020-12-05 I wrote: "But as smart people have remarked before, we will probably never revert to the lives we have led before the pandemic. If only for those businesses that will be gone for good, or some industries that changed (for the better if they have been stark polluters). But we will probably live with precautions for years to come." CORRECT

On 2020-12-12 I mused about what the soon-to-be-ready vaccines would do to our numbers. I was still under the impression that a vaccine would have a long-lasting effect but as we know now (and could have known then), vaccines to viruses of the SARS family do not elicit long immune responses. WRONG (together with millions of others)

On 2022-12-19 I wrote: "The pandemic will not be over in 2021. In fact, it will last well into 2022 for most countries with early access to the vaccine. Other countries will be suffering for years to come, including the favourite holiday destinations to the South of Europe and Northern America." CORRECT

---