Analysis – 16 September 2020

Good but extremely fragile development in the U.S.
Germany a beacon of hope in a sea of rising European infections.
And let's not forget that at one point in the future, somebody will have to pay for the trillions that we pushed into our economies.

Brazil had its usual drop over the weekend and numbers are back up again. Daily infection numbers fell from 24.1 to 17.4 per 100K and daily deaths rose a little from 0.416 to 0.530. Overall, both daily numbers remain on a steady but slow downward trajectory, that is, given the official numbers. It remains hard to see how many undocumented cases there are in the hinterlands of Amazonia.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: Same as for weeks now: new infections continue going down while new fatalities keep steady. Daily infections fell from 15 to 13.4 per 100K and daily deaths remained almost the same at 0.335. The R-value was an OK 1.02 and slightly down. Daily positive test rate rose from 6.3% to 6.5% and now to 7.1%, which is not good. Three states went to better risk and only one, Vermont, to worse, which is a positive sign. France and other countries have taught us that a positive development as the one in the U.S. can turn around in a heartbeat.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

California continued its nice downward trend with the incidences and maybe with fatalities too. Daily infections fell from 8.4 to 5.7 per 100K and daily deaths fell from 0.281 to 0.167, which looks good but it is a familiar pattern and fatalities could go up again by Saturday. Both, R-value and positive testing rate went down and while the risk map showed a lot less red, still more counties went to higher risk than went to lower.
Outlook: Bad With Hope

Washington seems to be on the right track. Daily infections dropped from 7.1 to 4.3 per 100K, continuing its slow and difficult decline. Daily deaths rose from 0.079 to 0.118. Looking at the highest values since the peak in late July, there has been a steady but painfully slow decline in new fatalities. The R-value remained largely unchanged at 1.03 and the the daily positive rate went from 3.3% to 2.8%, which is very positive. The risk map saw four counties going for the better and two for the worse, which is also not too shabby. 
Outlook: Bad With Hope

France: Daily infections fell from 14 to 11.7 per 100K and daily deaths rose from 0.060 to 0.073, both with a clear upward trend, albeit attenuated. The record-high infection number is three days back and it is possible that new restrictions will dampen the increase even further. The daily positive rate remained at 5.4% after a 6-week increase, which is a potential positive sign. The R-value was not calculated anew and remained thus at 1.19. The risk map saw "only" 9 Départements going for the worse and none for the better. This relative slowdown of risk worsening is not surprising as 40% of France is already at the highest risk level and cannot go any worse.
Outlook: Very Bad Going Worse

New York shows the same trend since early July. Daily infections fell from 4.5 to 3.9 per 100K, with the usual trendline hovering around the horizontal. Daily death numbers rose from 0.026 to 0.057, which is a one-month high but not at all in the danger zone. The risk map showed the usual switching around from green to yellow and back, leaving NYC in bright yellow. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

United Kingdom: Daily infections fell from 5.2 to 4.6 per 100K, which is the fourth day of decline since the 4-month high. It is too early to interpret this as a positive sign. Daily death numbers jumped from 0.009 to 0.040, which makes the similar value from 5 days before look less than an outlier but rather something inherent to the reporting system. Any consistent increase of the death number is of great concern but the amplitude is just not yet alarming. The R-value remained slightly above 1 and daily positive tests went up a little to 1.4%, which is an OK value. 
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse

Germany: Daily infections rose from 2 to 2.3 per 100K with more districts going for worse risk than going for better. There was a pronounced shift in new infections from the south to all over the country, including the East. This is consistent with external infections having dropped to below 35% due to fewer holidaymakers returning (who reside mostly in the south), which leaves mostly foreign (seasonal) workers that infect themselves outside of Germany (who work all over the country). The daily death numbers remained very low at 0.007. The R-value fell a little to 1. The latest projection has pushed the renewed increase to start in November instead of October, which is certainly not a bad sign.
Things are seemingly going well in Germany because infections are not increasing as fast as before. But they are still increasing. And neighbouring countries are doing poorly and borders remain open. Also, Germans are demanding fewer restrictions and they are getting them, such as fans in football stadiums. Which means with absolute certainty that case numbers will go up more steeply again, which will then be counteracted with tightened restrictions, bringing numbers down again, and this game will be played for months to come. 
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse 

Tunisia is now four days behind the other nations with data reporting. Daily infections fell from 3.3 to 2.1 per 100K but were at the record high of 6.4 per 100K just one day earlier. These are predominantly young people, owing also to Tunisian demographics with a third of the population younger than 25. Of bigger concern are the daily deaths, which rose from 0.034 to 0.051, representing six fatalities. This is not alarming but if more fatalities were to be seen, it would be. The daily positive rate had another big leap forward from 10.5% to 12.7%, because not enough testing is being done. With school having started, many parents are concerned that their children could carry the virus into their families, endangering their grandparents.
Outlook: Satisfactory Going Worse