Analysis – 14 November 2020

Britain, France and Tunisia are turning around. Sweden is still catching up. Germany must expect a lot more deaths. Numbers in the US have remained high throughout the summer and are poised for an elevation.
The current lockdowns in Europe are not going to work well if we do not acknowledge the infection risk coming from our young populations. In an effort to keep their lives as normal as possible, we send them to school and daycare where they will get infected, but mostly without showing any symptoms. At home, they pass on the virus to their parents who are, in most cases, still young enough to have only mild symptoms, if at all. From there, the virus jumps to others in the family, particularly at birthdays, during weekend getaways etc.

Here are the projections for the coming months. While incidence numbers are important, it is really the death numbers that will have a profound impact on our daily lives. These numbers are also the only ones that can be truly compared between countries and regions because infections are measured in many different ways and with more or less efficiency. This is why I discuss only the fatalities.

Britain's deaths will peak around the turn of the year at double the current daily death numbers.
France's deaths should peak before the end of the year at 50% more daily deaths than currently seen.
Germany's deaths should peak in mid February with daily numbers going up to 5-14x the current values. 
Sweden's deaths could peak in February, eclipsing last spring's peak and seeing up to 16x more daily deaths than currently. That is, if no mask mandate will be put in place. If this were to come true, Sweden will become the poster child of how not to handle a pandemic.
Tunisia's deaths are currently not increasing but they are projected to peak at around the turn of the year with up to double the current daily numbers with dire consequences for the health care system.

The U.S. deaths as a whole could peak in late January at more than double the current number, but not reaching the height of the spring peak. This is a welcome ray of hope.
Deaths in California, however, are projected to rise steadily from now on and not peak before the end of the projection period in March, eclipsing the current record high of August by a little. Given that death numbers have never been really low, this increase will not make a big impression on the graph.
Washington State's deaths are projected to peak in late February at 3-5x the current daily numbers.
New York State's deaths are projected to peak in early February with 4-6x the current daily numbers. This peak will be 9x smaller than the gigantic spring peak and it thus feels as if it were less menacing but it is still dangerous.

Brazil is projected to continue its nice decline in daily deaths. By the end of March, the numbers could be down to a third of the current ones.
China has not reported a single Covid-19-related death in 47 days but there is a peak projected in late March with around 30 daily deaths. Given the huge population, this will be barely noticeable on my graph.