The U.S. is segregating; France might be peaking; the UK and Tunisia are on a dangerous rise, WA does not know where to go, Brazil and CA know their way down, Germany got a reprieve and NY is un-excitingly OK.
Brazil: Daily infections decreased from 18.9 to 16 per 100K and daily deaths fell slightly from 0.408 to 0.398. While these numbers still reflect the weekend drop, the overall decrease in new cases and fatalities is continuing. Another positive: the percentage of positive tests fell from 70% to 45%, which, while still far too high, shows that the testing capacity is getting to where ultimately all infected people are caught.
Outlook: Very Bad Getting Better
U.S. minus CA,NY,WA: The US' Corona map continues to be matching the electoral map (see below). Daily infections increased from 15.8 to 16.9 per 100K but daily deaths fell from 0.295 to 0.284. The latter is a delayed consequence of the falling case numbers in August and fatalities are thus expected to increase soon. R-value and daily positive rate were unchanged.
Outlook: Very Bad Getting Worse
California's curves continue their nice downward trend with daily infections decreasing from 9.2 to 6.7 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.230 to 0.134. The R-value of 0.86 is slightly down and safely below 1 and the positive testing rate fell to a very good 2.8%. This good trend is reflected in the risk map, which showed no more red but several counties hovering around the yellow-to-orange boundary (hopefully leaning towards yellow).
Outlook: Bad Getting Better
Washington seems to be undecided whether it wants to really get better, which is probably owed to the Republican-leaning counties. In addition, the state is plagued with yet another number-reporting issue. Numbers therefore represent the state from three days ago and have to be taken with a grain of salt.
Daily infections fell from 5.3 to 4.6 per 100K with a rendline pointing only a tad downward. Daily deaths remained at a low 0.079 but are probably going to change retroactively once the numbers are in order again. The R-value fell a little to a good 1.01 and the the daily positive rate remained at a good 2.9%. The risk map is a mixed bag and still has three red counties in the East.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
France's increase seems to be slowing. Daily infections dropped from the record high of 19.7 to 15 per 100K and daily deaths from the 4-month high of 0.230 to 0.116. This is a good start and we shall see if it will hold. The daily positive rate increased from 5.4% to 6.1%, so there is a need for more testing. The R-value from 7 days ago dropped to 1.09, which does not at all resonate with the other numbers because 50% of France's Départements are now at the highest risk level and 10% at the lowest. Also, ICU beds are predicted to be filled in less than a month and already are in some areas, such as France's second biggest city, Marseille.
Outlook: Very Bad Getting Worse
United Kingdom: The island is on a steady increase and Johnson is keeping the country in some form of lockdown until March with dire consequences for the economy. Daily infections rose from 6.4 to 7.3 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.040 to 0.055. The R-value was unchanged at 1.25 and daily positive tests inched up to a still good 1.5%, meaning that enough test seem to be done. The number of fatalities is still low but ICU beds are already wearing thin and numbers will probably go up in November.
Outlook: Bad Getting Worse
New York showed the same picture as before and the situation seems well under control, in spite of the too-high case numbers. Daily infections fell from 4.1 to 3.91 per 100K with an unchanged trendline. Daily death numbers fell from 0.051 to a good 0.021. The risk map added a lot more green but also shows two orange counties but keeps NYC in the yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory
Tunisia had a new record high. Daily infections increased from 4.6 to 10.4 per 100K and daily deaths from 0.043 to 0.085, which, together with the increased fatalities, catapulted it in my "bad" category. The daily positive rate inched up from 13% to 14.1%. While the current number of hospitalised people is manageable, ICU beds are predicted to become scarce by early December.
Outlook: Bad Getting Worse
Germany: Daily infections fell from 2.8 to 2.1 per 100K, hinting at a slowdown. Over 80% of these new infections originate inside of the country and it takes only one or two large events with a superspreader to kick numbers up again. The daily death numbers remained low but increased from 0.007 to 0.016. The daily test positivity remained 0.9% so far but new testing numbers will only be added in Saturday's blog. The R-value fell below 1 again, which is yet another indicator that things have calmed down. But is it the calm before the storm? ICU beds are predicted to be exceeded by demand by the end of December.
Outlook: Satisfactory Getting Worse
Comparing the U.S. map of coronavirus risk with that of the political party strength, one can see a striking correlation between Republican-leaning states in red hues and counties with the highest risk for Covid-19 infections (also in red).
I predict that the Republican-leaning regions in the midwest, south and the southwest will struggle a lot longer with the virus than the regions leaning Democrat.
