Brazil 12 points, US zero points, Europe meh
Brazil: I am very happy to see the upwards trend of new positives broken. Numbers have sunk to 16.2 per 100K. Likewise, daily deaths went up to 0.55. Brazil has now fewer daily cases per capita than the US and, within it, California, Washington and, I am sure, many other federal states.
Outlook: Very Bad With Lots Of Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: I shall stop writing "record value" on the graph since it seems to be every day now. Daily positives increased to 24.2 per 100K, still trending since mid June. Daily deaths came down a little from its 5-week high, now at 0.3 and trending up. The daily positive rate rose from 9.6% to 9.8% and lots of counties see a shift to worse on the heat map.
Outlook: Very Bad
California: The turning point I had been hoping for was only a slow-down of the increase of cumulative numbers. Daily positives rose to 25.3 per 100K going up since mid May. Daily deaths rose a little to 0.33 and trending sharply up. The daily positive rate stayed on 7.1%.
Outlook: Very Bad
Washington: Numbers continue to climb. Daily positives have gone up again, from 7.2 to 9.7, and now to 17 per 100K, trending up. Daily deaths are trending slightly down at 0.08. The daily positive rate rose from 5.9% to 5.7% and now to 6.2%. The deaths are still very low (in the range of New York) and while new positives are reported all over the state with an increasing number of young people getting sick, the worst development remains east of the Cascades.
Outlook: Bad
New York: While daily positives have come down in the last four days, now at 4 per 100K, there is an unmistakable rising trendline. Daily death numbers dropped a little to a low 0.05 but have stopped their nice and steep decline about 10 days ago and daily fatalities are declining more slowly.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: Daily cases went up again, from 0.66 to 0.8 and now to 1.25 per 100K and trending slightly up. Daily deaths sagged to an even lower 0.021, which is good, were it not for the increasing trendline The daily positive rate went fro 0.9% to 1.1% and now 1.2% and the R value is still above 1.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: Daily cases went down again to 0.64 per 100K with the trendline now pointing up (which it had been doing for weeks and after a short break, we are back again). Daily deaths remained far below 0.01 (it is actually 0.0012). The daily positive rate was 0.6% and the R value is below one.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia: Daily cases are at 0.08 per 100K. This is extremely low compared to the other regions. Daily deaths remained 0 for 30 days. The daily positives remained at 1.6%, reflecting the "increased" number of cases, which almost all were introduced from returning nationals (most of which from France, which is another reason why I am suspicious of France).
Outlook: Excellent But Waiting
Or at least large parts of it.
In this article about the coronavirus red zone, originally published by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom based in Washington, D.C, over half of the states are now in a red zone for cases of test positivity. The document was prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force but not publicised because it suggests that more than a dozen states revert to more stringent protective measures, limiting social gatherings to ten people or fewer, closing bars and gyms and asking residents to wear masks at all times.
I am concerned that this denial of reality will have long-term effects on the economy, especially as some of the workforce protection programs are slated to run out. The Airline industry has already announced massive layoffs. A friend of mine thinks that Wall Street is holding off to placate Trump. And if Biden were to be elected president, they could then give up the pretence and stocks could slump.