Da capo: Americas - turnaround? Europe (and NY) - second peak
The WHO says that over the past five months infection rates among young people have risen from 4.5% up to 15%.
Brazil: The Brazilian weekend must last one day longer than in the rest of the world because the new daily infections increased one day later, and steeply so, to 24.6 per 100K, which pushed the trendline up, but trending almost flat. Daily death numbers doubled to 0.549 per 100K, still trending down but less steeply so. So both trends are not pushed to the very bad by the increase in numbers, which is a good sign.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Looking back three weeks, new infections have formed a peak and we are on a nice downward trend. The death numbers, however, will remain high and might even increase but they should peak, too, within the next three to four weeks. The example of France and Germany (and Spain with a very strong rebound) shows that gains hard fought for will be lost in a whim if people don't co-operate. One should also take into account that even before US "reopening", the downward trend in new infections was much less steep than in European countries. Therefore I expect a much slower recovery, where New York's 3 per 100K daily infections would not be reached before November.
Daily infections increased from a relatively low 15.8 to a still relatively low 17 per 100K, keeping its nice downward trend. Daily deaths, on the other hand, doubled to 0.392, but pushing the trendline up just by a notch. Daily positive tests inched up to a high 9.3%. On the risk map Texas went red (how appropriate) and Oklahoma's risk went orange (from red).
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
California: Here too a peak has formed and new infections are on a clear downward trend. Daily infections dropped even further, to 11.5 per 100K and the trend going down steeply. Daily deaths saw a steep increase from 0.081 to 0.286 but the trendline, unfazed, is becoming even flatter. The R-value decreased a lot to 0.89 but the risk map shows more counties going worse than better. The latter is a warning sign that things could still go wrong. The daily positive rate continues its 10-day downward trend and is now at 6.0%.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily infections dropped from 8.3 to 7.1 per 100K, pushing the trendline further downward than on the day before. With the US having peaked, it is just a matter of time before Washington follows. Or so one may think. Daily deaths remained 0.053, trending up less steeply, which is also good. However, the daily positive rate moved even further away from the magic 5 to 7.1% and the R-value increased to a worrisome 1.09. The risk map still shows too much red and orange. Oregon's governor is thinking about closing the interstate borders, a move I have suggested months ago.
Outlook: Bad With Hope
New York: Daily infections seem to want to remain in the 2-4 per 100K range, now at 2.8 per 100K but trending downward still. On the other hand, daily death numbers increased a little to 0.015, which is in the French and German league. The daily positive rate remained at its good 1.0% and the R-value grew slightly to 0.96. The risk map moved two more counties from green to yellow.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: Daily cases decreased from 1.68 to 1.55 per 100K, keeping the upward trend unchanged. Daily deaths fell to 0.007. The daily positive rate increased further to 1.6 % and the R-value remains above 1. France stays yellow on the risk map, has 187 clustered outbreaks (+5) to deal with and more than 14% of the Départements classified as vulnerable. Eyewitnesses in Nice tell me that mask wearing is not as prevalent as it is in Germany. Come on, France, you can do better.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
Germany: Daily cases fell from 1.06 to 0.89 per 100K, but the trendline is pushed up more steeply. Daily deaths increased from 0.004 to 0.020, still very low. The daily positive rate is from days ago and I am waiting for the RKI to release new testing numbers. The R-value remained unchanged and good. The next days will show if this second peak increases further or if it shows signs to abate.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia saw 17 new cases, of which only 2 were local. The opening of the borders has wreaked havoc in the country and clearly shows that it was ill prepared for the onslaught of infected people coming from the outside. Daily case numbers grew from 0.03 to 0.15 per 100K, still trending up. No new death was reported in three days. The daily positive rate grew to 1.8%, which is owed to a still low testing rate. If I were a Tunisian health official, I would ramp up testing, especially at the entry points into the country.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern
I want to end the usual somber outlook with something positive. Because the virus is like thousands of Gretas.
The big polluters are changing their course: BP wants to become sustainable by 2050; air traffic is down to half; fewer ships are crossing the oceans and whales are sighted in harbours. And Los Angeles has the best air quality ever.
Energy consumption is down: Germany now has 50% renewable electricity, up from 44% before Corona (BC) because with less energy used, the most polluting (and most expensive) plants are shut down first.
And even though most of this will evaporate like thin aig, a lot of the economic stimulus plans have built-in green components, with a lasting effect after the worst of the crisis has passed.