The dream is over
Brazil: After yesterday's record high, daily infections dropped a little to 28.5 per 100K and daily deaths to 0.61, pushing both trendlines to point up again. The constant drop we saw over almost a week was just hot air. Sad.
Outlook: Very Bad
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections grew from 20.7 to 21.4 per 100K with an unchanged trendline. Daily deaths gave a little to 0.32 but trending up higher. The daily positive rate inched up to 9.7%. While there were fewer new infections added every day since about a week ago, the curve was clearly pointing into the wrong direction again and the steep rise of the daily fatality numbers are of concern.
Outlook: Very Bad
California: Things look bleak. While daily infection numbers fell from 32.4 to 30.5 per 100K, but trending up more than the previous day, daily deaths reached a record high of 0.4 and trending up much more steeply than before. The daily positive rate increased from 7.6% to 8%. The risk map showed far too much red and orange.
Outlook: Very Bad
Washington: There was never a dream since new infections kept going up for weeks. But maybe there will be one in a fews days. Daily infections dropped from 10.9 to 8.8 per 100K, with a trend that went slightly into the good direction. Daily deaths dropped sharply from 0.16 to 0.4, pushing the trendline down a little too. The daily positive remained at 5.1 %. The risk map lost its two green counties in the west and gained one in the east but the big red streak in the middle does not want to go way. What is it with these counties anyway? Too many people who don't "believe" that there is a virus? Too many working poor who are forced to work in unsafe conditions? Too many young who "believe" that they are immune?
Outlook: Bad
New York: Daily infections fell from 3.6 to 4.4 per 100K and trending slightly up. Daily death numbers seem to want to imitate the infections in that they clearly deviate from their nice way downward towards a much flatter trajectory. They are now at 0.07. The daily positive rate remained at a good 1.1%. The risk map swapped two counties each for yellow and green.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: New cases rose from 1.49 to 1.58 per 100K, with an even steeper trendline than the day before. Daily deaths seem to resurface from their very low, now at 0.015, trending still down but less steeply so. The daily positive rate remained at 1.2% and the R value remained above 1. France made it on Tunisia's green list for allowing tourists in, after having initially been absent. But Austria was taken off, showing that some countries in Europe are struggling again.
Outlook: Good With Concern
Germany: Daily case numbers increased 0.55 to 0.68 and now to 0.98 per 100K trending up pretty steeply. Daily deaths have increased for a week, having now reached 0.012. The daily positive rate was 0.6% five days prior, and the R value is still below 1. Could it be that this is my predicted overall rise (as opposed to the clustered outbreak) caused by young people passing the virus among themselves but not really getting sick, and now passing it to the older generation?
Outlook: Good With Concern
Tunisia: They added 12 new cases, all imported and taken care of, and daily case numbers rose to 0.1 per 100K with 0 deaths reported in 36 days and the daily positive rate remained at 1.4%.
Outlook: Excellent
I have mentinoned this before but now an increasing number of people are realising that coronavirus is here to stay for many years to come. Here is a current article in the BBC and here one from three weeks ago from Australia. The reason why we, the majority of the countries on Earth, cannot go to where Vietnam and other East-Asian countries are now is because we missed the train in January.
We will have to learn to live with the virus.
Masks will be here to stay.
Social distancing will be followed by emotional distancing and we will get used to it.
Travelling will remain less carefree.
Life will be less spontaneous.
Life will not be like it used to for years to come.
But we will cope.