Some hope for the worst hit and America Is First again
Brazil: Daily positives have risen sharply to 19.2 per 100K but this value is still below the peak values and the trendline is still pointing down. and daily deaths have risen to 0.61 and trending almost flat. With every day that passes, it looks as if the peak from a month ago was real and we are now over it.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily positives rose a little to 19.9 per 100K still trending up. It should be said that daily positives for the entire US have left Brazil's peak value behind several days ago. The upward trend looks as it it were slowing down a little. Daily deaths have doubled to 0.25, still, trending down but less steeply so. The daily positive rate rose to 10.2%.
Outlook: Very Bad
California: Daily positives came down to 18.6 per 100K and the trendline has been becoming less steep for five days in a row. Daily deaths rose to 0.12 and the trendline came down a little more going almost flat. The daily positive rate fell from 7.6% to 7.5%. Maybe there is a daily case peak in the making. Let's wait and see.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope
Washington: Daily positives rose to 14.5 per 100K trending up for six weeks and counting. No daily death was reported and the trendline came hence down to be flat. The daily positive rate fell from 6.5% to 6.0%. If the deaths, which had been good for weeks now, were the sole indicator, I'd rejoice. But the stubbornly high number of positives, even if with a high number of asymptomatic people in them, keeps me worried. Young people everywhere are giving the stinky finger to caution and I have the impression that this slowly growing (and to some extent understandable) trend will lead to the virus lingering in our population at an insanely high rate for years to come.
Outlook: Bad
New York: What happens? Daily positives are on an upward trend again, rising from 2.9 to 4.7 per 100K and trending slightly up. Daily death numbers fell to a low 0.03 and the daily positive rate rose a litte to a non-threatening 1.1%.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern
France: There were no new numbers released on the 14th because of the holiday. Which reminds me to remind the virus to take a break when its hosts are celebrating. Here is yesterday's assessment:
After the weekend hiatus and a little data massaging to bridge the two-day gap, the new case numbers look almost like the ones from before the weekend. The trendline is still pointing up at the same angle but I expect it to consolidate at around 1 per 100K. Daily cases fell to 0.8 per 100K. Daily deaths remain very low, at 0.012, and the daily positive rate fell from 1.1% to 0.9%. Of concern: the R value is way above 1. This is a mixed bag but does not look too good.
Outlook: Satisfactory
Germany: Daily cases rose sharply from 0.2 to 0.9 per 100K and the trendline went up accordingly, but still pointing down. Daily deaths remain far below 0.01. The daily positive rate was 0.5% four days ago (still waiting for the weekly update) and the R value is below one. This is still good but could be the shadow of something sinister looming.
Outlook: Good
Tunisia: New cases went down to 4 and thus to 0.03 per 100K, which is 10x less than the day before. In their press, they talk about only one of the 39 cases having been internal. All other cases were Tunisians returning home, mostly from France and other foreign nationals. These people were probably not ill because otherwise they would not have travelled. They must thus be considered positive for the virus but not "cases" in the strict sense of the word. These people were all put in quarantine after arrival and will thus not infect anybody. The daily positive rate fell from 1.8% to 1.6%. There still have been no new deaths in 28 days and with the new knowledge, I expect no surge in deaths.
Outlook: Excellent
There has been repeated talk about the long-term damage to lung, heart, kidneys, liver and nervous system the virus causes months after the most severe symptoms have eased. Here is an article in the LA Times.
If it were true that, if you contract the disease, you have a non-negligible chance of being scarred for a long period, Covid-19 suddenly would become like AIDS: one mistake and you have problems for life.
But there is so much we don't know: how long is long? Months, years? Will infected but asymptomatic people show symptoms later if they had a very mild course of the disease?