Analysis – 10 August 2020

The Weekend Drop Continues
And I keep this short because numbers are not accurate during the dry period. 

Brazil: Daily infections dropped to 11 per 100K and trending flat. Daily death numbers fell to 0.272 per 100K but trending up a little. Both drops are in the range of what we have seen in past weeks and they were always followed by a steep increase. Let's see what numbers look like in two days when Brazilian weekend dip is usually over.
Outlook: Very Bad With Maybe Some Hope

US minus CA,NY,WA: Daily infections fell to 15.4per 100K and daily deaths to 0.182. Daily positive tests also remained at 6.8% as did the R-value. The risk map has not been updated since the 7th. One bad sign: this weekend's drop is not as steep as prior ones.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

California bucks the trend and numbers remained high. Daily infections increased to 21.2 per 100K and daily deaths fell to a still-too-high 0.263. The R-value remained at 0.94 and the risk map is waiting to be updated.
Outlook: Very Bad With Hope

Washington: Just like in California, Washington's daily infections rose by 50% to 12.3 per 100K, trending up higher, and daily deaths fell to 0.210, trending higher too. The R-value remained at 1.08.
Outlook: Bad With Hope

New York's weekend drop seems to be shifted by one day but the picture remains unchanged. Daily infections dropped only now, and to 2.7 per 100K, trending down a little. Daily death numbers grew to a low 0.036 per 100K. The daily positive rate remained at 1.0% and the R-value remained at 0.97. 
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

United Kingdom: Daily cases rose from 1.12 to 1.56 per 100K, trending up almost unchanged. Daily deaths fell to a very low 0.012, trending down dramatically. Daily positive rate and R-value are unchanged.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

France: The French statisticians are taking their well-deserved weekend. Here is Saturday's analysis:  Construction of the second peak is well under way. Daily cases increased from 2.39 to 3.41 per 100K, with a now steeper upward trend. Daily deaths remain very low at 0.018. Daily positive rate, which increased to 1.7%, and R-value (1.36) remain of concern.
Outlook: Satisfactory With Concern

Germany: As always, numbers increased after the weekend drop. Daily cases rose to 1.16 per 100K, and there were 5 new deaths which made the daily death number fall to a very low 0.005. The R-value, a 7-day average, gave a little to 1.05 but will go up again once the weekend data have been flushed out. It remained above 1 and daily cases are still trending up, which are both of concern. The number of poisitive tests can only be calculated once the RKI releases its weekly bulletin including the testing data and once these data have been processed by the data aggregator.
Outlook: Good With Concern

Tunisia xxx added 19 new cases, including 12 local. Daily case numbers fell to 0.16 per 100K and no new death was reported in nine days. The daily positive rate eased from 2.1% to 2.0%  to 1.7% and now to 1.6%. This is a good sign but case numbers are as close to the first peak as are the French ones, which has France on alert and is worrying Tunisian officials too.
Outlook: Excellent With Concern