Analysis – Saturday, 3 September 2022

Covid-19 Is (Becoming) Endemic
There is hope that next year will bring some relief

I extended the graphs' timeline to mid-2023 in the hope that by then science has developed a prophylactic that can protect against infection, knowing that, given the nature of the virus, a simple vaccination won't suffice. Alternatively, there is still a chance that the virus will mutate to a less threatening form.

Vaccination rates are at an all-time low (except,  for Tunisia, but they have a long way to catch up) and hence there are still millions (in the countries represented here) that are not only better at transmitting the disease (than the fully vaccinated) but also prone to ending up in hospitals and morgues. I am waiting for somebody to research the cost on society of people not vaccinating. Expecting this to be an exorbitant number, I would further welcome a debate on how to have these people take fiscal responsibility for their beliefs.

USA: Reported incidence too high and not falling much, actual estimated incidence 3x higher and slated to rise; ITU moderate and falling; mortality too high and rising.
Outlook: Due to low vaccination and large swathes of people who follow beliefs, Covid-19 has become endemic and mortality will remain high. Life expectancy has fallen by nearly three years since the beginning of the pandemic, which is the worst in a developing country (but not surprising given the abysmal state of health care overall).

Washington State: Reported incidence high and falling, actual estimated incidence not much higher; ITU moderate and falling; mortality too high and wavering.
Outlook: Much better than the USA at large, which is owed to educated urban areas. Numbers in rural Washington resemble those of the US average. Urban Washington has similar outlook as Western Europe.

France: Reported incidence too high and falling, actual estimated incidence 3x higher and expected to rise; ITU low and falling and expected to rise; mortality moderate-to-low and falling.
Outlook: Covid-19 is becoming endemic with a relatively low mortality.

Germany: Reported incidence too high and falling, actual estimated incidence 3x higher and expected to rise; ITU low and falling, mortality moderate and wavering.
Outlook: Covid-19 is becoming endemic with a moderate mortality.

Tunisia: Reported incidence might have reached bottom, actual incidence 130x higher and thus the highest in the list; mortality low and falling, but given low number of people with full vaccination and high risk of under-reporting of Covid deaths, mortality should be a lot higher. Indeed, actual estimated mortality (30x higher) is more as expected.
Outlook: Incomplete numbers combined with weekly-only reporting make predictions hard, next weeks should tell if rise in infections is real.