Early Summer Safe For 90% Without Chronic Illness
The other 10% need continued protection from the virus
Humans are bad a sensing absolute values. Take our current incidences, for instance. In many countries, they are a lot higher than they were last year or the year before as we were moving into summer. In Germany, this discrepancy is particularly apparent with current incidence over 10x higher compared to the same time last year. But yet, because numbers have been coming down so nicely, people are increasingly feeling safe there. And that in the light of a still very high number of people taking sick leave because of Covid. Admittedly, we also feel safer now because the disease has lost its acuteness while we conveniently forget about the long-term peril affecting 20% of Covid patients (see Remarks below) and the sizeable part of our population that can no longer participate in public life without (see Remarks on 2022-03-19).
So, while real danger still exist, our lack of proper perception, paired with a desire for any semblance of normality, makes us become complacent. Pfizer's CEO just said so, and while he may not be the ideal person to utter this warning, he is still right (ars technica).
But for now, let's look at this week's numbers, which indeed look good. For now. The height of summer might bring back the challenges.
USA: Incidence might have reached its peak within two weeks. R-value still above 1 but falling. ITU still increasing but mortality increase might come to a halt soon. Good prospect for the next two months.
Washington State: Will incidence peak be reached soon? Mortality increase might come to a halt too. Good prospect for the next two months.
Britain, France: Incidence and mortality falling steeply, ITU numbers falling slowly. Looks good for the next two months although there is more danger than in France or Britain to get infected.
Germany: Incidence and mortality falling nicely but still above European neighbours, Looks good for the next two months.
Tunisia: No new increase in incidence after all. However, all indicators seem to stall. Still good numbers but I'd be vigilant for the next months.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ITU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 34.8 ↗︎ | 0.6 ↗︎ | 0.103 → | 14.1 % ↑ | 15.9 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 39.3 ↗︎ | 0.7 ↗︎ | 0.096 ↗︎ | 15.6 % ↑ | 11.4 % | → |
| Britain | 08.3 ↓ | 0.3 ↘︎ | 0.103 ↓ | 03.3 % ↘︎ | 12.8 % | ↓ |
| France | 19.1 ↓ | 1.6 ↘︎ | 0.074 ↓ | 14.3 % ↓ | 12.1 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 34.4 ↓ | 1.0 ↘︎ | 0.091 ↓ | 51.6 % ↓ | 07.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 00.7 → | 0.2 → | 0.034 → | 04.9% ↗︎ | 17.5 % | ↓ |
Here is a finding to counter people likening the new Covid reality to that of the past flu seasons. The flu, once you have had it, does not cause long-term effect. Covid does. And estimates of the number of people affected are becoming firmer. And they are growing.
The American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have published a report (PDF) in which they report that one in five adults in the US who have recovered from COVID-19 may end up developing a long-term condition linked to the viral infection. This number is similar to the 22% reported from a modelling study in August 2020.
The post-COVID conditions span heart, lung, kidney, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, neurological, and mental health conditions. Overall, COVID survivors had nearly twice the risk of developing respiratory and lung conditions, including pulmonary embolisms, compared with uninfected controls. The most common post-COVID conditions were respiratory conditions and musculoskeletal pain.
Among COVID survivors, people ages 18 to 64 were more likely than older survivors to develop cardiac dysrhythmia and musculoskeletal pain. The risks for survivors 65 and up were greater for kidney failure, blood clots, cerebrovascular disease, muscle disorders, neurological conditions, and mental health conditions.