We Should Not Get Excited Too Early
The pandemic is far from over
Incidences are going up or will soon do so. As a consequence, and with a delay much shorter than known before, ICU (ITU) and death numbers are or will be following. This increase is possibly caused by three factors:
◼︎ recent unmasking,
◼︎ the 80% more proliferative Omicron BA.2 variant and
◼︎ a waning immune protection even with a second booster shot.
Some states in the USA already see this effect and the country as a whole could soon see another strain on its health care system. Here is a good analysis by CNN (website or PDF). Incidence in Washington State seems to be on the climb already.
In Europe, the millions of poorly vaccinated refugees from Ukraine will further add to the bad outlook. In addition to Coronavirus, there is a chance of an upsurge of other viral diseases.
Not surprisingly, Austria has re-introduced its indoor mask mandate. Politicians claim that they could not have known that incidences would be rising so sharply (but readers of this blog know better). France and other countries with rising incidence might consider following Austria's lead.
Germany remains a hotspot with skyrocketing incidence. However, its death numbers seem to fall or at least have come to a comparatively high plateau. Due to German antipathy to data registers of any kind, the present ICU numbers are at least a month behind and could be 5x higher, which would make them stand out against other nations as well. Hospitals seem to be coping though.
Tunisia has not released any numbers in four days and it remains to be seen whether the newly increasing incidence will have an effect on ICU numbers or deaths. Likewise, Portugal and Spain have not released any vaccination data in a week.
Scientists predict that the current wave could extend into the summer. But with the disease having lost its danger in the public eye, living with the virus and risking Long Covid on the way might be the new norm. The vulnerable population will be pushed to the edge of society (see Remarks below).
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 009.3 ↘︎ | 1.2 ↘︎ | 0.160 ↓ | 05.2 % ↑ | 16.7 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 013.8 ↘︎ | 0.9 ↘︎ | 0.210 ↘︎ | 11.9 % | ↘︎ | |
| Britain | 119.5 ↗︎ | 0.4 → | 0.163 ↗︎ | 07.9 % ↗︎ | 12.8 % | ↘︎ |
| France | 122.8 ↗︎ | 2.7 ↘︎ | 0.173 → | 25.1 % ↑ | 12.6 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 263.8 ↗︎ | 2.7 ↗︎ | 0.231 ↘︎ | 58.7 % → | 07.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 015.5 ↗︎ | 0.9 ↘︎ | 0.128 ↘︎ | 27.0 % ↓ | 18.9 % | ↘︎ |
New data by Britain's Office of National Statistics suggests that as much as 98% of all Britons have made antibodies against Coronavirus. This is in stark contrast to the US estimate of 44% (CDC via ars technica). If it were really true that almost all Britons had been infected with the virus during the past two years, and given the recent surge in new infections, it would confirm what we already know: people can infect themselves more than once and prior infection or vaccination does not protect (totally) from it.
If Covid-19 were like the flu, our concerns about being infected would be low. Because, after all, the number of people infected with influenza virus every winter was rarely something worth writing about. That is, before Corona.
But Covid-19 is not like the flu. About 10%-20% of the cases result in Long Covid, even those with initially mild symptoms. Long Covid symptoms include loss of smell and fatigue (from mild to debilitating). They can last from several weeks to several months but in some rarer cases they may last forever. While they are seen more often in the older generation and in people with prior diseases, there are ample reports of Long Covid in healthy people in their 20s.
Is it worth the risk? In most countries the decision seems to now lie with the individual. People with chronic diseases will thus be the only ones to wear masks in public indoor places and will probably retreat from public life as much as their personal feeling of safety tells them to.
Vulnerable people are not a small minority. The new reality will see them do more online shopping, less socialising and less travelling. As a consequence, they could become more lonely and more marginalised.
How long this will last? For 2023 and possibly for years to come.