Analysis – Saturday, 13 August 2022

Same Same
Waiting for the winter surge

The current drop of all indicators is small but the word "drop" is what most people will remember from the news and thus the impression of "things are getting better" will prevail. 

The test-positive rate are all above 10%, which indicates that incidences are a lot higher than they are reported. The IHME projections show that "real" incidences are similarly high in the USA, France and Germany; but lower in WA State and higher in Tunisia (turquoise dots followed by the dotted lines). With the exception of Tunisia, incidences are projected to stay high even if they do go down for a few weeks. Incidence in Tunisia is projected to plunge to very low levels before rebounding in October. This is good news for Tunisia and not-so-bad news for the other countries because it means that numbers will not become much higher than they currently are. Until November, that is.

IHME-projected hospitalisations will go down and remain relatively low until November. This is good news.

IHME-projected mortality is declining but will rebound in October. In Tunisia, mortality is expected to drop dramatically to a level far higher than in the other countries. This is not surprising given the low vaccination rate (only 10% have received a booster, thus three jabs). Three jabs constitute a "complete" vaccination even if health authorities claim that two jabs are sufficient. 

Tunisia is probably a safer country to be during winter than Europe or North America.