Analysis – Saturday, 6 August 2022

Easing, Expecting Re-Surge
Danger remains, normality is anywhere near

With the exception of Tunisia, where infection numbers go down a lot and are expected to remain there, the other countries and regions are faced with a steady too-high incidence (even if falling for now), continued too-high (but not critical) hospitalisation and a mortality that is much lower than before but, no thanks to the unvaccinated, remains too high to not to be of concern.

New vaccinations remain at the low end after a slight (France, USA) or a strong (Tunisia) brief surge. Germany expects more vaccinations when the new, Omicron-specific vaccine is out, but it could take well into 2023 before it will have an impact on mortality.

Test-positive rates are coming down where daily test numbers are still being reported, which is a good sign because it means that in spite of all uncertainty about the real infection numbers, the current downward trend is real.