Data Seem To Follow Projections
Projections are calling for an easing of incidence and a re-surge in late September
Autumn incidence surge will probably be driven by the start of school combined with people passing more time indoors.
Hospitalisations are increasing but expected to fall until November. Some regions currently report problems caused by staff shortage plus people being sick with Covid, but not by ITUs being overwhelmed by a stark increase in patients.
Mortality remains fluctuating at around 0.1 per 100 000 with France reporting the highest in my list. Numbers are not projected to fall to levels where they become of no concern.
Wearing masks now would, in most likelihood, dampen the autumn surge.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ITU / ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Mortality Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 40.3 → | 1.3 ↗︎ | 0.129 → | 21.3% | 15.0% | ↘︎→ |
| WA State | 30.2 ↘︎ | 1.2 → | 0.165 → | 16.7% ↑ | 11.2% | ↘︎↗︎ |
| France | 79.5 ↓ | 1.9 ↗︎ | 0.135 ↗︎ | 27.4% ↓ | 11.6% | ↘︎ |
| Germany | 89.8 ↘︎ | 1.8 ↗︎ | 0.137 ↗︎ | 51.3% | 07.1% | ↘︎→ |
| Tunisia | 17.2 ↘︎ | 0.2 | 0.131 ↗︎ | 38.0% ↓ | 16.5% | ↗︎↘︎ |
No remarks this week.