Cases Climbing and Will Remain Too High, Deaths Climbing (US) or Down (EU)
Projection for cases to fall a little and to pick up in August
The USA and Washington State sees all numbers still increasing, but hospitalisations and deaths are projected to go down soon. Incidence, as expected from a virus that is here to stay, will pick up again in August.
Britain has a severe reporting problem. The only numbers available are incidence and deaths and even these are spotty. They both go up and the projection is similar to the US one. All other numbers are 2-3 weeks behind.
France's and Germany's incidence falls in with what was said above and will pick up again in August. Hospitalisations and mortality are falling nicely and is projected to do so until the end of summer.
Tunisia's good luck streak is coming to an end. Incidence is on the rise and is probably over 100x higher than reported. The government's weekly number reporting makes further assessment difficult but there are two equally negative factors: the test-positive rate went above the (safe) 5% line and the R-value is inching closer to 1. Plus, the newest projection by IHME shows a steady increase in all numbers.
A couple of weeks ago, Spain has started to register new Covid-19 cases only among the 60+ population. Given the rising numbers in general and in its closest neighbour, Portugal, in particular, they should stop that folly immediately because right now, Spain is largely flying blind.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ITU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 32.4 → | 0.8 ↗︎ | 0.119 ↗︎ | 22.9 % ↑ | 15.6 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 37.5 → | 1.0 ↗︎ | 0.111 ↗︎ | 16.8 % ↑ | 11.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 16.2 ↑ | 0.3 | 0.098 ↗︎ | 03.3 % | 12.7 % | ↓ |
| France | 33.6 ↗︎ | 1.3 ↘︎ | 0.052 ↘︎ | 17.4 % ↑ | 12.0 % | ↘︎ |
| Germany | 60.5 ↑ | 0.7 ↘︎ | 0.085 ↘︎ | 34.5 % | 07.3 % | ↓ |
| Tunisia | 00.8 ↗︎ | 0.2 | 0.010 ↗︎ | 08.0% ↑ | 17.2 % | ↗︎ |
There is now little doubt that Covid-19 is here to stay and becoming endemic. We expect it to come in waves, which will be strongest in the cold period. This behaviour would make Covid-19 similar to influenza. Putting aside the fact that Covid-19 causes long-term illness in about 20% of the cases (and influenza does not), both viruses mutate, which causes different mortalities in different waves.
In Germany, the flu season in the winter of 2017/2018 caused over 25 000 deaths, which was the highest number in 30 years (PDF in German). Here is a pop-up table of all deaths since 2001.
For comparison, since the beginning of the pandemic, Covid-19 killed about 140 000 people in Germany. But for a better seasonal comparison, one needs to look at the deaths after the vaccination has started: Since mid February 2021, Germany has recorded about 75 000 deaths from Covid-19.
To put this number in perspective: the "better" influenza waves caused less than 1000 deaths. Since 2001, Germany reported an average of 7800 influenza deaths per season and a median of 900.
Thus, in Germany, the worst influenza wave in 30 years killed 3 times fewer people than Covid did with its Delta and Omicron variants. And an average influenza wave killed less then 5% than Covid.
To spell it out for the deniers and those who are lulled into believing that everything is fine:
Covid-19 remains much much more dangerous than the flu.