Analysis – Saturday, 4 June 2022

Covid-19 Is Here To Stay
Not masking is a cause for more infections

New omicron variants are pushing up incidences (e.g BA.4 and BA.5, as covered by CNN). They respond even less to vaccination or prior infection but still, they seem not to affect mortality too much. Portugal, however, is reporting more deaths, but mostly in the elderly. 
Numbers are not accurate and are reported more infrequently than before, making analyses difficult.

In the USA and especially in Washington State, the incidence push caused by the new variants may be on its way out. Incidences remain high though and mortalities refuse to fall below the lowest value seen throughout the pandemic. ITU occupancy is on the rise still, which is not easy to explain because omicron should not cause more cases with severe disease than the delta variant did. 

Germany can see a new-variant effect already. Incidence has ceased declining (it is actually climbing) and the R-value has gone way above 1. ICU occupancy and mortality keep going down though. The BA.5 variant could be dominant in 6-8 weeks, which is even more reason for the vulnerable population to keep their masks on when in public.

France, too, sees its incidence stall and while ITU occupancy is still falling, the decline of the mortality has slowed down.

Britain has incomplete data. ITU occupancy, vaccinations and p-value are 2-3 weeks behind. Incidence seems to be unaffected by the new variants. 

Tunisia may not have the new omicron variants yet and hence, numbers remain low.