It Will Take Longer Than We Wish For
Resumed mass tourism, steamy dance floors and full stadiums are not exactly helpful
Plus, we should not underestimate the virus' ability to mutate.
Omicron BA.2 has arrived in the USA and it is pushing incidences up to a plateau. Experts argue that the number of cases is severely undercounted, a side effect of reopening and people feeling less threatened. The US is not alone in this and I am dedicating a Daily Remarks to this (see below).
Washington State is seeing a rise in new cases but ICU (ITU) and mortality remain unaffected.
Britain's mortality continues to rise dramatically while case numbers are coming down. It is unsure what to make of this. But it is certainly not related to Boris' partying at Number 10 Downing Street.
France's incidence might have peaked but ITU numbers and mortality are on the increase, which could constitute the delayed effect of the once-rising incidence and should thus revert again.
Germany's incidence has definitely peaked but the recent unmasking could soon bring it up again. ITU numbers are still being faxed in and one month behind, which makes them unreliable. Mortality has been on a steady if slow rise for weeks, which is mostly the elderly and/or unvaccinated.
Tunisia's numbers are falling nicely but they are projected to plateau soon. It remains to be seen whether this happens at all and if so, if this plateau might not constitute some kind of lower limit, which the country is not able to go below (too low vaccination rate, lax adherence to masking, looming state bankruptcy).
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 012.0 ↗︎ | 0.5 ↘︎ | 0.155 ↘︎ | 05.8 % ↑ | 16.4 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 013.9 → | 0.3 ↘︎ | 0.064 ↘︎ | 12.6 % ↑ | 11.8 % | ↓ |
| Britain | 050.3 ↘︎ | 0.5 ↗︎ | 0.418 ↑ | 08.5 % ↓ | 13.0 % | ↓ |
| France | 191.3 ↘︎ | 2.4 ↗︎ | 0.190 ↗︎ | 32.4 % ↗︎ | 12.4 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 154.4 ↘︎ | 2.3 ↘︎ | 0.263 → | 67.9 % ↘︎ | 07.5 % | ↓ |
| Tunisia | 001.6 ↘︎ | 0.2 ↘︎ | 0.101 ↘︎ | 13.3 % ↑ | 18.5 % | ↘︎ |
U.S. incidence seems to be much less affected by the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron than Europe. Scientists believe that a massive undercut of the cases could be the culprit (NBC Article from 10 April, see PDF). If this were true, hospitalisation numbers should be on the rise again. NBC followed up on this on 16 April (Website). I am citing here one of their figures showing an increase of hospitalisation in the last two weeks in the north east.
If the U.S. can learn anything from Europe though, it is that a renewed increase in cases will be a mere bump in the road and 'Merica should be back on a downward path in a month or two.
What none of these scenarios accounts for, though, is people suffering from Long Covid. They appear in no dependable statistic because they are not sick enough to die or to go to the hospital. But they are affected in their daily lives. Until we know if the Omicron variant causes Long Covid, too — there has simply not enough time elapsed — we probably should not treat Coronavirus as if it were influenza.