Analysis – Saturday, 9 April 2022

Some Countries Reaching Endemic Phase
That would be Tunisia and Washington State 

Tunisia is projected to see numbers drop sharply until early May and then to plateau until early August. Incidence should plateau at a high level while ITU occupancy and mortality should plateau at a low, non-dangerous level. This means, with the current dominant Omega BA.2 variant, the virus should become endemic without causing no greater harm as a wave of mild flu.

Washington State is also projected to move in to an endemic phase with a continually high incidence and ICU and death numbers falling into safe territory.

The USA as a whole could be on the way to reaching the endemic phase but they are not there yet. The good news: vaccinations are up. 

Britain could be approaching the endemic phase at the same time as the US. British high incidence is projected to fall only a little and the currently high mortality is slated to drop sharply below 0.1 per 100K. Spain and Italy display similar patterns with just a slightly slower mortality decrease.

In France and Germany, however, incidences are projected to fall to a much lower level than the aforementioned countries. An endemic phase could be reached in August. Mortalities are projected to fall to non-dangerous values by June/July.

These predictions become a moot point with the spread of a more dangerous virus variant.