Vaccination Alone Doth Not A Healthy Population Make
But failure to be close to 80% fully vaccinated will make for a hard winter, masks or not.
Portugal shows that it is possible to fully vaccinate a population close to 90%. As a consequence, death numbers are projected to remain low into the next year, that is, if the current degree of mask wearing and distancing were kept. Should the (soon to be elected new) government decide to scrap these measures, as other countries have done before (and were punished 2-3 months thereafter), deaths could go up to unprecedented levels.
Portugal is thus a good example for what has been postulated before: Vaccination alone does not protect a population, masks remain an important factor. That is, until all countries with with population flow in and out of said country are equally protected through the vaccine.
All countries on the graphs below have non-ideal vaccination rates and they will thus see a rough winter, the more so, the fewer people had a jab (such as Germany, the USA, WA State and Tunisia). Plus, where mask wearing and distancing are no longer mandatory, numbers will surge (such as in Britain, Denmark, and other countries).
Britain is ramping up its vaccination effort, but its protective effect might come too late for prime minister Johnson to get away with not re-establishing the mask mandate.
France, it seems, has been doing mostly well. Its mortality from Covid-19 ranks among the lowest in the EU. But its good testing rate is diminishing and its R-value is above 1, which forebodes rougher waters.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 21.9 ↘︎ | 4.5 ↘︎ | 0.435 ↘︎ | 06.8 % ↘︎ | 15.7 % | ↘︎↗︎ |
| WA State | 28.1 ↘︎ | 2.4 ↘︎ | 0.362 ↘︎ | 10.3 % | → | |
| Britain | 61.2 → | 1.3 ↗︎ | 0.226 ↗︎ | 05.1 % ↗︎ | 13.6 % | ↗︎ |
| France | 08.3 ↗︎ | 1.5 ↘︎ | 0.046 ↘︎ | 01.9 % ↗︎ | 13.0 % | ↘︎ |
| Germany | 22.2 ↑ | 2.0 ↗︎ | 0.107 ↗︎ | 07.2 % → | 06.0 % | ↗︎ |
| Tunisia | 01.1 ↘︎ | 0.9 ↘︎ | 0.119 ↘︎ | 03.6 % → | 20.8 % | ↘︎ |
I read this somewhere:
A Covid-19 vaccine is like a rain coat. In a typical rain, it keeps you from getting wet. It is, however, useless in a torrential rain storm.
A vaccinated person is thus protected when she is not exposed to a shitload of virus particles. High exposure could happen in a small space, such as a bar, a bathhouse, a dance club where a single person emits a lot of virus particles. This person can even be fully vaccinated because we now know that the viral load of an infected person does not change significantly with the vaccination status. And we all know that some patrons will have fake certificates, so there is even more risk.
My advice for this winter: avoid crowded indoor places. Especially if you have other medical issues or a compromised immune system or are older than 70.