Wait And See
The new predictions have a more positive outlook, except for Germany
Germany and Britain are the only two nations with death numbers predicted to rise by IHME calculations. If this were indeed true, Germany could blame its lack of vaccination and Britain its premature easing of distancing and protection measures.
France shows better numbers and a good outlook, which is probably owed to a slightly better vaccination rate and more mask use than Germany and Britain.
The USA and Washington State should not rejoice. Yet. While numbers and predictions are pointing down, they will probably not go down low enough.
After several weeks of successful vaccinations drives, Tunisia seems to have joined the other nations' vaccination fatigue and they could therefore miss their ambitious goal. Corona numbers are still falling like ripe apples though.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 25.9 ↘︎ | 5.3 ↘︎ | 0.497 ↘︎ | 07.4 % ↓ | 15.6 % | ↘︎↗︎ |
| WA State | 30.4 ↘︎ | 2.8 ↘︎ | 0.385 ↘︎ | 10.0 % | ↘︎ | |
| Britain | 59.3 ↗︎ | 1.1 ↘︎ | 0.178 → | 04.3 % ↗︎ | 13.7 % | ↗︎ |
| France | 07.2 ↘︎ | 1.8 ↘︎ | 0.055 ↘︎ | 01.1 % ↗︎ | 13.3 % | ↘︎ |
| Germany | 10.5 ↗︎ | 1.6 → | 0.073 ↗︎ | 06.3 % ↗︎ | 06.1 % | ↗︎ |
| Tunisia | 01.5 ↓ | 1.1 ↘︎ | 0.104 ↓ | 03.6 % ↘︎ | 21.2 % | ↘︎ |
In a preprint paper published by researches from the NIH and Fred Hutch, it was concluded that mixing and matching COVID-19 vaccines for booster doses appears safe and as effective—if not more effective—than sticking with the same vaccine for a booster dose. Like almost any paper reporting on COVID-19, sample sizes were not too big, so this can be only a hint.
The take-home message is that it does probably not matter which vaccine is used for the booster but the mRNA vaccine by Moderna has a slight edge over the others. Moderna