Analysis – Saturday, 23 October 2021

In For The Long Haul
Winter will be tough, spring might bring ease

The countries that have reduced their restrictions prematurely without enough protection through the vaccine, are now paying their price. This includes Britain and the Netherlands, who join the USA, with governors who declare their states Covid-free, whose numbers have never been low enough throughout the pandemic.

Tunisia's vaccination fatigue is becoming manifest in a slowdown of the, still impressive, decline of the ICU and death numbers.

France has passed Germany in all parameters and, potentially owing to a better vaccination rate, has a better outlook for early 2022 than the teutonic neighbour.

How much the rising numbers are going to affect the vaccinated population remains to be seen.

Summary

 Daily incidence, deaths and ICU occupancy are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual number might be higher. Arrows = tendency.
Daily death projections from 20 October for the time period until the end of January 2022 assume the continuation of current measures.
See explanations on the help page.

 Daily
Incidence
Daily
ICU
Daily
Deaths
Daily
Pos. Rate
Average
Excess 
Death  
Death
Projection
USA22.5 ↘︎4.9 ↘︎0.522 ↗︎07.3 % ↘︎15.7 %↘︎↗︎
WA State29.1 ↘︎2.5 ↘︎0.405 ↘︎ 10.2 %
Britain69.4 ↗︎1.2 →0.200 ↗︎04.8 % ↗︎13.6 %↗︎
France07.4 →1.6 ↘︎0.047 ↘︎01.3 % ↗︎13.2 %↘︎
Germany16.4 ↑1.7 ↗︎0.082 ↗︎07.2 % ↗︎06.0 %↗︎
Tunisia01.0 ↓1.0 ↘︎0.079 ↘︎03.6 % ↘︎21.0 %↘︎

No Remarks

No remarks this week. Things are just trickling along and no new exciting finding are there to be reported.


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