Mixed signals
USA peaking, Britain and Germany increasing, Spain, France and Tunisia decreasing
Denmark, which is not on the list, has just abolished all restrictions. And it is true that its numbers are remarkably low, possibly the lowest in the EU. But scientists warn that in spite of a stellar 74% full vaccination rate and minuscule ICU (ITU) occupancy numbers, things could get worse again. I am looking at you, Britain, plagued by vaccination fatigue and relatively low but steadily growing numbers.
France and Spain seem to have bucked their recent trends and are set on low autumn numbers. In the same category but with an outlook that should put the Western nations to shame, Tunisia tops the list of daily vaccinations and as a consequence, their key numbers are projected to drop faster than lead.
Which leaves Germany, the oxymoron. Its numbers are still low but the outlook is alarming. Due to the usual morons but also exaggerated ethics in lawmaking—owed to its Nazi past—the number of daily vaccinations is hitting a new low every week.
Lastly, the USA and WA State are seeing their numbers peak, and this is certainly welcome. However, in the past 18 months, US numbers were always oscillating within a certain corridor, never too low and never too high, whereas numbers in the EU showed much greater amplitudes. I therefore expect the US numbers to drop only to the lower boundary of said corridor. While the EU will get them much lower.
Part of the solution is so simple yet so unnecessarily complicated: get vaccinated (PDF). You will become 5x less likely to catch the delta variant, 10x less likely to end up in the ICU and 11x less likely to die from Covid-19. And you will help disrupt the infection chain.
| Daily Incidence | Daily Deaths | Daily ICU | Daily Pos. Rate | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 44.1 ↘︎ | 0.497 ↗︎ | 7.8 ↗︎ | 14.0 % ↗︎ | 15.1 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 42.8 → | 0.437 ↗︎ | 3.4 ↗︎ | 12.8 % ↑ | 08.9 % | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 55.8 ↗︎ | 0.200 ↗︎ | 1.5 ↗︎ | 03.5 % ↘︎ | 14.1 % | ↗︎ |
| France | 16.1 ↓ | 0.166 ↘︎ | 3.4 ↗︎ | 02.3 % ↘︎ | 13.9 % | ↘︎ |
| Germany | 12.9 ↗︎ | 0.047 ↑ | 1.6 ↑ | 08.3 % | 06.3 % | ↑ |
| Tunisia | 13.8 ↘︎ | 0.463 ↓ | 3.9 ↘︎ | 13.5 % ↘︎ | 21.7 % | ↓ |
| Spain | 11.4 ↓ | 0.194 ↗︎ | 4.0 | 06.3 % | 13.4 % | ↘︎↗︎ |
My friend Michael from Texas sent me an interesting article by Philippe Lemoine with the above mentioned title, which I am sharing here (PDF).
I agree with the author in that there will be a time when we can treat Covid-19 like the flu. The question is, at what time does a country decide that now we can give the virus free reign and let the natural defences of the population take over.
The UK is a testing ground for this theory and now Denmark too. Britain's numbers are growing slowly but steadily, which is not a good sign. For Denmark, it is too early to tell.
I do not agree with the author on the topic of variants. After all, you can get sick with the flu twice in the same season due to different strains. And flu variants do have the potential to bring health systems to their knees.
Finally, the author has not mentioned long-term Covid, which happens in maybe 10% of the cases. To my knowledge there is no flu equivalent.