Analysis – Saturday, 28 August 2021

The Winter Peak Will Come
But Vaccination Combined With Distancing And Masks Will Soften The Blow

Does a high vaccination rate help bring down numbers? In Spain this seems to be the case, even against IHME predictions. Mask wearing and distancing played a big role as well. Because Britain, with just a slightly lower full vaccination rate but without the restrictions, sees all three key parameters (incidence, ICU and death) on the rise, with no end projected in the coming months. Washington State sees the highest ICU (ITU) occupancy since the beginning of the pandemic. This is owed to a relatively low and uneven vaccination rate (entire state: 54%, Seattle: 67%; rural counties: 25-40%). With the number of daily jabs declining since mid July, death numbers in Germany have finally followed the two preceding parameters (incidence and ICU) in their upward course. The IHME projects numbers to skyrocket but currently they remain the lowest in this blog. The USA will, at best, see numbers recede a little, but will continues struggling under the virus' yoke well into the coming year. Tunisia is holding several vaccination days, which ultimately will push numbers down beyond what current distancing and lockdown measures can achieve.

The delta variant is very very powerful. It is hard to imagine what numbers would have looked like if nobody had been vaccinated.

What we have learnt from some countries' mistakes: distancing and masking measures must be kept in place until herd immunity is reached.