Analysis – Saturday, 4 September 2021

Vaccine Slowdown in Wealthy West
Plus: EU and USA Are Drifting Apart

Numbers in the USA are probably going to remain high until the end of the year, owed to a combination of low vaccination and mask wearing. Numbers in the EU, while currently high, are either already going down or have the long term potential of doing so. Vaccine fatigue will take its toll here too and EU countries are drifting apart. Spain is set to go to 80% or even 90% full vaccination by year's end and Germany should be happy if it reaches 65%.

Washington State sees the highest ever ICU occupancy, while incidence and death numbers are runners-up. This is owed to a state vaccination map where some counties are as high as 71% fully vaccinated and some as low as 27%. Not surprisingly, the former counties lean Democrat whereas the latter lean Republican. 

After relaxation of the distancing and mask measures 6 weeks ago, I expected Britain's numbers to explode. But instead they are increasing only moderately, but steadily, and not projected to go down before the end of the year. This was, in a way, Johnson's plan: give the virus free reign because the hospital pressure is easing. This will build up natural immunity in the yet non-vaccinated population or strengthen immunity in those previously vaccinated. This is a dangerous gamble, especially in the light of vaccinations running at snail's pace. Johnson is certainly throwing the vulnerable population under the bus.

Were Tunisia to keep the current pace of vaccination, it could have fully immunised 60% or more of its population in 2021.