Analysis – Saturday, 10 December 2022

Déjà Vu
Politicians repeat mistakes from two years before

France's incidence is rising sharply and Germany's incidence is now beginning to rise too. Why was there a one-month delay in Germany compared to its neighbour across the Rhine? Maybe because of the mask mandate in public transport, which does not exist in France. After all, trains and trams are great incubation chambers, particularly during the cold times.

And what do German politicians do? Instead of their preferred way of not changing things that are already kind-of accepted, they are scrapping the mask mandate in local trains, trams and buses (link in German). While the number of Covid-19 patients in German intensive treatment is low, ITU beds are scarcer than during the high-time of the pandemic (because of personnel shortage and a surge of non-Covid respiratory infections). A surge in cases could therefore put the hospitals at a tipping point. And for no good reason, other than to appease the voters.

Numbers are rising in the USA, too. Their hospitals have been stretched thin for a month already; additional Covid patients could put some rural clinics into triage. Washington State is no exception.

Tunisia's numbers are based on a too-small sample size and there is a high chance that they are wrong. There has been no reporting in the press of hospitals being overwhelmed and therefore, overall, the situation is acceptable.

Summary (reported numbers)

 Daily incidence, ITU occupancy and deaths are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual numbers might be (considerably) higher. Arrows = tendency.
Mortality projections are from 17 November until late February 2023.
 See the help page for explanations.

 Daily
Incidence
Daily
ITU /
ICU
Daily
Deaths
Daily
Pos. Rate
Cumulative
Excess 
Death  
Mortality
Projection  
USA18.8 ↗︎1.1 ↗︎0.123 ↗︎11.9% ↗︎13.8%↗︎
WA State12.3 ↗︎0.5 ↗︎0.073 ↘︎08.3% ↑10.6%↗︎
France89.9 ↗︎1.7 ↗︎0.110 ↗︎28.5% ↗︎10.6%
Germany34.0 ↗︎1.1 ↗︎0.113 →27.2% →06.8%↗︎
Tunisia00.1 →   0.001 →04.7%  14.4%↗︎

No Remarks

No remarks this week.

Covid-19 has lost its danger to human life. But it still poses a danger to public infrastructure and the economy, together with other infectious agents (see China). This danger seems to be highly underestimated.

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