Analysis – Saturday, 26 November 2022

Same As Last Week
Numbers are not changing too much but remain at too-high levels

Vaccination, particularly with the latest bivalent boosters, is key to getting through the cold period without too much harm to the individual but also to society (see remarks below). Unfortunately, these boosters are not picked up much. The very modest October peak was a mere drop in the bucket. WA State with its progressive-leaning population has a higher vaccination rate than the US as a whole, which matches CDC data on vaccination uptake in red vs blue states. Tunisia has all but stopped vaccination (or if they do so, they are not reporting them), which could drive up hospitalisations and deaths in the coming winter months.

France's incidence is on the rise but hospitalisations and mortality are steady at what is probably the lowest level that this country can achieve for the coming months. The fact that numbers rise while Germany is still falling can be partially attributed to the fact that, unlike Germany, people are not required to mask in trains and public transportation. There is, of course, no scientific proof for that but IHME has consistently stated over the last years that masking will reduce incidence.

Germany's numbers are all falling but sewer levels of coronavirus indicate that incidence is bound to rise again. Mortality is falling, which is nice because this number has been consistently higher than the neighbours. I expect them to bottom out at 0.1 per 100 000, which would put them in line with France and the USA.

USA's incidence is plateauing at a high level but ITU numbers are slightly up. According to my earlier predictions, the virus has become endemic and, paired with a sub-par health system and sub-par vaccination, hospitalisation and mortality numbers will remain too high for months to come, while in other countries, these two indicators will fluctuate more widely (or decrease by a lot). Washington State's mortality and hospitalisation numbers are lower than the US average, which is probably caused by better vaccination and better access to health care.

Tunisia's incidence is on the rise, but at a such low level that it does not pose a threat. Still, it is possible that the real numbers are much higher than the reported ones (as the IHME suggests), in which case we should see more sick people in the coming winter months.