Germany, France Peaking, USA Before Rise
And Tunisias low numbers seem to be real
Germany and France see their incidences peak. Given that winter has not yet started, numbers are likely to go up again. In both countries, hospitalisations are still up and deaths are climbing.
In the USA incidence might be at a turning point before going up and hospitalisations have halted their downward slope. Mortality remains steady at a too-high level. In Washington State, incidence seems to be farther ahead in going upwards again.
In Tunisia, the head of the Pasteur Institute assured me that data accrual is reliable, including the rural areas (which has been my major concern), and that the extremely low numbers are therefore real. We also speculated about the reasons for these low numbers below.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ITU / ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Mortality Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 11.1 ↘︎ | 0.8 → | 0.113 → | 08.1% ↘︎ | 14.2% | ↘︎↗︎ |
| WA State | 09.1 ↘︎ | 0.4 ↘︎ | 0.084 → | 09.5% ↗︎ | 10.9% | ↗︎ |
| France | 77.4 ↘︎ | 1.5 ↗︎ | 0.111 ↑ | 26.9% ↘︎ | 10.9% | ↗︎ |
| Germany | 96.9 ↘︎ | 2.1 ↗︎ | 0.183 ↗︎ | 52.1% ↘︎ | 06.9% | ↗︎ |
| Tunisia | 00.1 ↘︎ | 0.005 → | 01.8% ↓ | 15.1% | ↗︎ |
Tunisia stands for many developing African countries with a very young population, whose Corona numbers have been low for a while now. Considering the very much higher numbers in Europe, I wondered what the reasons could be.
Over lunch with Hechmi Louzir, the head of the Pasteur Institute in Tunis, I asked him the same question and here are three factors, about which we speculated:
- Many more Tunisians than Europeans have been infected with the virus that actually more than twice. This could have provided a good natural immunity.
- Tunisia is a young country, whereas Europe is ageing. And age equals vulnerability. Tunisia's young (below 25) make up ⅓ of the population. In Germany it is ⅕. The numbers are reversed for the population 55+.
- Tunisia's vulnerable might have seen a high mortality between late 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021, while vaccination was late to come to the country. The European vulnerable were vaccinated earlier and hence their mortality was lower then. In other words, those dying now in Europe have already died a year ago in Tunisia, which would explain today's extremely low mortality.