SARS-CoV-2 variants as of 10 October 2022
Germany Very Bad, France Bad, USA OK, Washington Good, Tunisia TGTBT*
But Germans remain astonishingly unconcerned
But storm is brewing on the horizon for North America and Western Europe.
Speaking of storm, the Chinese have had a good laugh at the former imperial powers and their poor handling of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. But they stubbornly believe that a virus can be kept out of a population forever. Well, now they are paying the price.
Tunisia is an enigma because their numbers look just too good to be true. And the IHME projections are not at all aligned with the official data.
Tunisia is doing very little testing but very few of those tests come back positive. The only explanation for data skewing is if the tests were not from across the country but rather from certain demographics, such as the affluent neighbourhoods that can afford the tests.
Tunisia seems to have very few deaths from Covid, too. And again, if these data were indeed untrue, the only explanation would be that death certificates were to state another cause than Covid-19 because the deceased have not been tested and, as it is customary in Islam, they are buried within 24 hours, so re-testing is not possible.
In a couple of days I shall have lunch with the director of the Pasteur Institute in Tunis and I shall find out more.
*TGTBT: too good to be true
| Daily Incidence | Daily ITU / ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Mortality Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 010.9 ↘︎ | 0.8 ↘︎ | 0.106 ↘︎ | 08.3% ↘︎ | 14.4% | ↘︎↗︎ |
| WA State | 009.6 ↘︎ | 0.4 ↘︎ | 0.099 → | 09.5% ↗︎ | 10.9% | ↗︎ |
| France | 081.4 ↗︎ | 1.4 ↗︎ | 0.084 ↑ | 27.5% ↗︎ | 10.9% | ↘︎↗︎ |
| Germany | 113.5 ↑ | 1.9 ↑ | 0.152 ↗︎ | 53.0% ↗︎ | 06.9% | ↗︎ |
| Tunisia | 000.3 ↘︎ | 0.005 ↗︎ | 06.0% ↑ | 15.2% | ↗︎ |
Now that I have received my booster shot specific for the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 variant, it seems as if this variant could be on its way out. Bummer!
Here is a snapshot of the current variants, showing that BA.4 and BA.5 have started to fall below 90%. This is particularly apparent in the USA where the latest 3-month trend hints at other variants growing.
Of particular concern is the BQ.1 variant, which seems to evade our neutralising antibodies (ars technica).
In the end, this Winter, our seemingly unconcerned societies are not only faced with increasing incidences and hospitalisation numbers, but potentially with a more dangerous virus, too.
