Analysis – Saturday, 24 September 2022

No Big Change From Week Before
Numbers remain too high even though they seem to be stalling or rising just a little

For the last couple of months, the official number of tests performed has dropped considerably. This is because people either don't test at all, or they perform home tests and don't report their positive result to the authorities. Three months ago, testing numbers from the USA, France and Germany became unavailable through OWID, which is my primary data source. The test-positivity rate is published by each country's health authority and will be listed on the graph. Tunisia is testing so few people that the resulting numbers must be taken with utmost care. Taken these things together, I decided that testing data had no more value and I removed the graph. 

The same could be done for vaccinations but the new booster vaccines seem to be accepted better. We see a sharp uptick in jabs in the USA (and earlier in WA State). I will therefore leave the two vaccinated-related graphs in, also hoping that France and Germany will see vaccination rates rise.

While projected actual incidences are in the same range in all observed nations, and while they are all projected to rise either soon or in a few weeks, the USA and Tunisia show falling reported incidences (they are stalling in Britain, Spain and other Western European countries) while they are rising in Germany, France and Washington State (in the latter, the rise is caused by non-metropolitan WA; incidence in Seattle metro is stalling). 

Projected actual mortalities are lowest in Tunisia and Washington State (here it is even lower than the reported mortality) and highest in the USA. They are projected to rise or eventually rise, even though reported mortalities are stalling.