Analysis – Saturday, 14 May 2022

America Up, Europe Hesitantly Down, Tunisia Very Low
June and July should be safe

The USA continues to see increasing case and ITU numbers while mortality is either falling very hesitantly or plateauing. Washington State shows a similar trend, albeit with a much lower mortality. Test-positive rates are above 10% again and R-values are way above 1. While this is reason for concern, the next two months should be safe. If incidences keep going up, renewed caution should be displayed in public spaces.

France and Germany see their numbers decline nicely but slowly. The same can be said for Britain now that the mortality seems to finally decline after months of stubbornly oscillating around a too high plateau.

Tunisia's incidence drop is slowing down the second week, test-positivity has moved up above 5% again and the R-value went above 1. The next weeks will tell whether new case numbers are simply bottoming out or whether they will climb again. 

The next two summer months will be relatively safe but with caution because the declines are not stable and can be reversed in a snap with the appearance of a new variant. If vaccination rates don't get up soon, the expected renewed surges in case numbers for late summer will also cause more deaths, particularly in places with too few booster shots (USA, Washington State and Tunisia).