Analysis – Saturday, 23 April 2022

On The Road To Endemic
Whatever that actually means

The definition of "endemic" is murky. One can safely assume that an endemic phase means that the threat is becoming less global and more local and that health care systems and societies are no longer overwhelmed.

Translated to numbers this means case numbers that remain noticeable, an ITU occupancy that is no longer standing out and a mortality that is persistent but so low that we get used to it. In the case of Covid-19 it also means that an increasing number of people will be diagnosed with Long Covid.

Numbers in the diagrams below support this theory.

The USA (and Washington State) are experiencing a renewed surge in positively tested cases but ITU (ICU) numbers and mortality will remain below danger threshold.

Western Europe is a little ahead of North America in that they have already passed the Omicron BA.2 surge.

Summary

Daily incidence, ICU occupancy and deaths are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual number might be (considerably) higher. Arrows = tendency.
Daily death projections from 7 April. They assume the continuation of current measures up to late July 2022
See explanations on the help page.

	Daily Incidence	Daily ICU	Daily Deaths	Daily Pos. Rate	Cumulative Excess Death	Death Projection
USA	012.0 →	0.4 ↘︎	0.111 ↘︎	05.5 % ↘︎	16.3 %	↘︎
WA State	016.7 ↗︎	0.4 →	0.068 →	10.2 % ↓	11.7 %	↓
Britain	039.1 ↘︎	0.5 ↘︎	0.412 →	07.6 % ↓	13.0 %	↓
France	133.9 ↘︎	2.5 ↗︎	0.189 →	23.0 % ↓	12.4 %	↓
Germany	114.7 ↘︎	2.1 ↘︎	0.176 ↘︎	57.7 % ↓	07.5 %	↓
Tunisia	001.0 ↘︎	0.2 →	0.029 ↘︎	05.5 % ↓	18.3 %	↘︎

Remarks On Coronavirus in Faeces

While we still don't know if the currently prevailing Omicron variants can cause Long Covid symptoms, here is a bit of interesting research (Bloomberg) that might help understand why the virus can wreak havoc in some people.

This research suggests that the virus can survive in the body months after a patient has cleared it from the airways. They find it in 13% of their 113 study participants, which, in a typical manner for Corona-related research, is too small of a cohort to draw definite conclusions.

Take home message: Coronavirus is definitely more dangerous than Influenza virus because it can affect organs that are not usually touched by the latter.