Déjà Vue in Europe
The Omicron BA2 variant and easing of protective measures drive incidences up
The results could not be more different between select countries. Denmark experiences record daily death numbers, in spite of a falling but recently stalling incidence. Germany and Austria have record incidences but daily deaths are going flat. Britain's renewed increase in cases has driven hospitalisations and daily deaths up as well. France's upswing of new cases is too recent to have an effect on the two other curves, yet. Spain's number are still falling, but the incidence shows signs of an impending slowdown. The Netherlands' incidence has been on the rise for two weeks but hospitalisations and death numbers have remained low and stable so far. Tunisia is teaming up with Western Europe. Its incidence has been on the rise for a week, deaths and hospitalisations remain on their steep decline but this could change in a week or two.
Numbers in the USA are the only ones decreasing on all fronts but, unlike Europe, these have diminished potential to go low enough to be of no concern. Washington State might be an exception, certainly in its counties with a good vaccination morale, but its R-value just made a big jump over the 1 line, which could foreshadow a renewed surge in cases.
Was it wrong for Denmark and Britain to abolish the mask mandate and for other countries to ease protective measures? Will the USA be following Europe's bad example? Will the Ukrainian refugees push numbers further up? Will Germany re-think its planned exit strategy?
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 011.2 ↘︎ | 1.7 ↘︎ | 0.384 ↘︎ | 05.2 % ↓ | 16.8 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 015.1 ↘︎ | 1.2 ↘︎ | 0.235 ↘︎ | 11.9 % | ↘︎ | |
| Britain | 087.2 ↗︎ | 0.4 ↘︎ | 0.154 ↘︎ | 07.9 % ↗︎ | 12.8 % | ↘︎ |
| France | 090.1 ↗︎ | 3.0 ↘︎ | 0.193 ↘︎ | 21.7 % ↑ | 12.7 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 229.9 ↗︎ | 2.5 ↘︎ | 0.253 ↗︎ | 58.7 % ↑ | 07.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 022.6 ↗︎ | 1.3 ↘︎ | 0.173 ↘︎ | 45.3 % ↑ | 18.9 % | ↘︎ |
If the 2+ years of the pandemic have taught us anything it is that we humans are resilient to learn from past mistakes. We developed into modern Homo sapiens by making assumptions based on our immediate surroundings. We may look down on the fly that keeps hitting the window glass but are we really that better?
Scientists, who have the ability to extend an individual's perception to more than just its immediate surroundings, have given us ample warning during the past two summers of bad things to come. We did not listen. Recently they have been cautioning us that the virus is not going to go away. Study results about the course of the pandemic are not clear cut but the do certainly not point to a quick end of the pandemic. Scientists predicted new variants (of which one was just discovered) and the current BA2 variant of the omicron variant that could actually be more severe than thought (CNN).
In a situation like this, abolishing the mask mandate is foolish. For one, because it sends out the wrong signal that the pandemic is over. And because it serves as an accelerant should science be right.