Too Early To Relax
Omicron-2 is delaying recovery
Three weeks ago, Britain relaxed their mask mandate and since then incidence was going sideways but lately it is falling again, albeit much more slowly so. Hospitalisations are still falling though and so are the death numbers, which had been on a plateau. Given the delayed response to the incidence, it is possible that latter numbers are going to fall a little less steeply in the coming weeks.
In other news, the Omicron-2 variant is already having an impact on the curves, which have ceased their nice downward slope. Likewise, projections are pushing the end of the pandemic out by roughly a month.
Germany has still not reached its peak incidence but hospitalisations and deaths have remained surprisingly resilient. While the latter two numbers have changed course and are rising a little, they are not expected to become critical. The high number of non-vaccinated Covidiots, surprisingly also among the elderly, make relaxation of the distancing rules a non-issue.
Tunisia is currently seeing a surge in hospitalisations and deaths in spite of a falling incidence. The two former indicators should have at least eased a little by now but the low number of triple-vaccinated (8%) and frequent anti-government protests with almost no mask-wearing, combined with a real incidence 10x higher than reported could prolong the agony well into April. Government officials (or whatever is left of a functioning government) are pondering renewed restrictions.
The USA and Washington State see their numbers relax but the latest projection by IHME pushes recovery out by one month.
France and Spain see their incidences come down but, here too, hospitalisations and deaths will remain high for longer than foreseen just two weeks ago.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 098.1 ↓ | 7.0 ↘︎ | 0.758 ↗︎ | 35.5 % ↓ | 16.4 % | ↓ |
| WA State | 151.7 ↘︎ | 3.1 → | 0.465 → | 11.2 % | ↓ | |
| Britain | 107.4 ↘︎ | 0.7 ↘︎ | 0.326 ↘︎ | 05.9 % ↘︎ | 13.1 % | ↓ |
| France | 407.2 ↘︎ | 5.4 ↘︎ | 0.411 → | 34.2 % ↗︎ | 12.5 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 219.4 ↗︎ | 2.7 ↘︎ | 0.174 → | 42.5 % ↑ | 07.3 % | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 049.9 ↘︎ | 1.7 ↗︎ | 0.455 ↑ | 35.0 % ↑ | 18.8 % | ↓ |
Good news about our immune system. The B-cell (antibody) response to the Omicron variant has been thoroughly studied and we know that the current vaccine is not as effective as it used to be. But new research (Nature) suggests that the other part of the immune system, namely the T-cell response, is not as much affected by the changed epitopes on the virus, thus still giving a good, but a little delayed, protection to an infection.
Thus, current vaccines are still good and the new vaccines, designed for Omicron, should be even better.