Incidence Peaking in Europe and North America
But deaths continue to rise
In spite of projections calling for deaths to have peaked by now, they continue to increase. Omicron thus rests a threat to reckon with.
While Western Europe should come out of the worst in a month or two, the USA and Eastern Europe will see hospitalisations and deaths (the two "bad" indicators) come down more slowly. While projections imply the opposite, numbers don't lie.
My earlier prediction for Britain's incidence going sideways due to the drop of the mask mandate seems to have come true. There seems to be a similar trend with the deaths. Coincidentally, Britain is vaccinating very little, which is the wrong thing to do when you stop wearing masks. Should this trend continue, Britain's recovery from Corona will be slower than the "Continent's".
Germany's incidence has still not peaked while still remaining much lower than incidences in France or Spain, which have peaked 1-2 weeks ago. This oddity is probably owed to Germans following the masking rule more strictly than the French, where exposed noses are common pictures.
The pace of vaccinations has slowed down in all regions. One explanation is people assuming that the pandemic will be over soon or that the vaccine has less protection against Omicron, so why bother?. Both assumptions are wrong. First because an endemic Coronavirus situation could, locally, still be very dangerous to an individual's health. And secondly because the vaccine, as imperfect it is in preventing the spread of the virus, still protects against severe disease.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Cumulative Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 165.5 ↘︎ | 7.7 → | 0.725 ↗︎ | 37.3 % ↓ | 16.2 % | ↓ |
| WA State | 269.5 ↗︎ | 3.1 ↗︎ | 0.422 ↗︎ | 11.1 % | ↓ | |
| Britain | 132.1 → | 0.9 ↘︎ | 0.385 → | 06.9 % ↗︎ | 13.0 % | ↓ |
| France | 527.2 → | 5.5 ↘︎ | 0.411 ↗︎ | 33.1 % ↑ | 12.5 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 176.4 ↑ | 2.8 ↘︎ | 0.172 ↘︎ | 32.6 % ↑ | 07.3 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 068.0 ↘︎ | 1.5 ↗︎ | 0.291 ↗︎ | 33.5 % ↑ | 18.7 % | ↓ |
SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that infects cells of the respiratory system and most people experience symptoms ranging between a severe cold or the flu. But in some, possibly as many as 20%, the virus damages cells outside of the respiratory system, such as the nerve cells or the heart.
I discussed the lasting damage of Coronavirus in July of 2020. Around that time it was also speculated that the virus could have secondary effects by making cells release certain proteins that trigger secondary responses in other cells.
A recent publication speculates that SARS-CoV-2 spike protein activates human endogenous retroviruses in blood cells (phs.org). Retroviruses, such as HIV, which causes AIDS, are able to permanently insert their DNA sequence into the human genome (the chromosomes). By doing so, these viruses go into a dormant state. The can re-activate by excising themselves out of the genome and becoming an infectious virus again.
There are other elements using the same mechanism. They are called transposons or jumping genes, and as the name implies, they can transpose themselves from one part of the genome into another, thus disrupting or altering a functional gene.
These elements are possibly the remnants of ancient viral infections that have been passed on through generations. They are a normal make-up of any genome and most are absolutely harmless.
This paper now speculates that SARS-CoV-2 can trigger such an excision of a dormant element in our genome. That newly activated element would then be responsible for diseases in cells that are not linked to the original target cells of the Coronavirus.
This is very very very preliminary research but it could be one piece of a mosaic that will lead to a better understanding of the virus and to better drugs to combat it.