Analysis – Saturday, 25 December 2021

Another Christmas Pushing Numbers Up
Plus, weeks of reduced reporting where better numbers would be sorely needed
Plus, Omicron and its fast rise to notoriety

Rich countries following the Christian tradition are in trouble now. Because not only is Omicron ravaging their, generally older, population, including the twice-vaccinated, but the holidays result in more traffic and more contacts and numbers will be under-reported for 1-2 weeks (based on last Christmas data). Contact tracing will also be more difficult. They will thus fly blind.

Whether the disease caused by Omicron is less severe will manifest in late January. But even if Omicron were to cause only mild symptoms, it will put a high percentage of the essential workforce out of commission. 

In Germany, France, Spain and Tunisia, where Omicron is still on the way to becoming the dominant variant, the IHME projections show a huge discrepancy between actual and reported infections. This is in contrast to the US and Washington State, Denmark and Britain, where Omicron, caused by the (partial) abandonment of the mask mandate, is already the dominant variant and where this discrepancy is less pronounced. 

Tunisia, as the only Muslim-majority country on my list, will be the sole country with dependable data between now and early January. In addition, its rather young population, of which a sizeable number has probably mounted a natural immune response to the virus, could mean that Omicron will have a milder effect here. The IHME projection seems to agree.

All other countries will have sub-optimal data for the next two weeks and I will thus refrain from commenting on the numbers.