Analysis – Saturday, 18 December 2021

In Suspense
Omicron will be a game changer and data are still scarce

One thing is sure: there will be a surge of newly positive people. Whether this will translate to more people in ITU (ICU, réanimation, Intensivstation) and / or dying, will be seen early next year.

Another thing that could become true: countries that have scrapped the mask mandate will probably see an earlier and possibly stronger surge (e.g. Denmark and Britain) than countries that have never abolished it.

Incidentally, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has not updated their projections since 17 November. On their web page they declare that they will update the forecasts as soon as they have factored Omicron into the scenarios.

Otherwise, nothing much has changed: the USA's medium high numbers will, at best, remain the same but are likely to become worse overall; Washington State will fare a little better; France and Germany will see an additional strong surge on top of the already-high infection numbers; and Tunisia has reached a turnaround and new infections could peak much higher than ever before.

Summary

Daily incidence, deaths and ICU occupancy are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual number might be higher. Arrows = tendency.
Daily death projections from (still) 17 November up to late February 2022 assume the continuation of current measures.
With Omicron looming, current death projections are probably obsolete. See explanations on the help page.

	Daily Incidence	Daily ICU	Daily Deaths	Daily Pos. Rate	Average Excess Death	Death Projection
USA	38.0 →	4.7 ↗︎	0.394 ↘︎	09.4 % ↓	15.7 %	→
WA State	18.7 →	1.7 →	0.193 ↘︎		10.7 %	↗︎
Britain	99.4 ↑	1.3 →	0.168 ↘︎	04.5 % ↘︎	13.1 %	↗︎↘︎
France	76.2 ↗︎	4.0 ↑	0.217 ↑	06.8 % ↗︎	12.4 %	↗︎
Germany	45.0 ↘︎	5.8 →	0.396 ↗︎	19.0 % ↘︎	07.1 %	→↘︎
Tunisia	01.8 ↗︎	0.6 ↗︎	0.043 →	04.0 % ↗︎	19.6 %	↘︎

Remarks On High German Mortality

Over the last two months, Germany's mortality rate has been consistently higher than that of Britain, in spite of similar full vaccination rates. Looking at the excess mortality (OWID) by age groups, higher German mortality in people 85 or older started in mid October and the 65-74 displayed the same discrepancy starting in mid November (see popup window). All the while the below 65 showed similar excess mortalities in both countries.

This finding is in line with millions of older Germans remaining non-vaccinated, including those in retirement or care homes.

In other words, German non-centralised bureaucracy combined with general vaccination hesitancy and strict adherence to guidelines has condemned some older people to an unnecessary death.