Same Data, New Look
And Outlook Remains Grim
The new look of the graphs: I took out the cumulative cases / deaths, leaving only the three important daily curves: incidence, ICU and fatalities. The actual numbers and projections were left as well. I further expanded the timeline to the end of 2022, hoping – without being too sure – that the pandemic will be under control by then. The months became narrower but colour-coded for easier comparison across the years (I labelled the quarters). I would have never thought that it'd come to this.
As Washington and other US states are observing their biggest holiday of the year (Thanksgiving), they suspended data reporting over the weekend. They probably also prayed for the virus to take it gently on humans who fly around the country and gather with their loved ones. For some, particularly in states with low vaccination, it will be the last time they see each other.
Britain is boosting like crazy. This, and the fact that they seem to have a higher vaccination rate among the vulnerable, result in a manageable ICU (ITU) rate and still few deaths. And this in spite of an unsatisfactory full vaccination rate and skyrocketing incidence. Some scientists suspect that natural immunity is higher than in other countries due to the abolishment of distancing measures in July.
France seems to love its brother Germany so much that it is now following in its footsteps. Germans's lockdown is just a few days away (my prediction). For Tunisia, numbers seem to be consolidating on the fact that a winter surge is unavoidable.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 22.5 ↗︎ | 3.6 ↗︎ | 0.246 ↘︎ | 08.8 % ↑ | 15.7 % | → |
| WA State | 18.2 ↘︎ | 2.0 ↘︎ | 0.263 ↘︎ | 10.5 % | →↗︎ | |
| Britain | 64.9 ↗︎ | 1.3 ↘︎ | 0.185 ↘︎ | 04.6 % ↗︎ | 13.4 % | ↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 38.1 ↑ | 1.9 ↗︎ | 0.093 ↑ | 05.3 % ↑ | 12.6 % | ↗︎ |
| Germany | 69.9 ↑ | 4.6 ↑ | 0.308 ↑ | 19.8 % ↑ | 06.0 % | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 01.1 ↗︎ | 0.4 ↘︎ | 0.034 ↘︎ | 04.0 % ↑ | 20.0 % | ↘︎ |
Imagine a Sioux warrior putting his ear against a train track to predict an approaching train. In the Western films, the moment he would hear a noise, he'd know that a train will soon arrive and he would get prepared to jump onto it.
In the world of a pandemic, the exponential world, the warrior would be beheaded by the oncoming train as soon as he'd hear the faintest rumble.
Our brains are wired for linear numbers and require special training to be able to feel at home in the realm of the exponential, the world where contagious diseases live. Without this understanding, people in power (and most of us) are prone to making the same mistake over and over again. Like that fly repeatedly banging against the window.
In early 2020 I posted the lily pond paradigm as a warning about the overwhelming speed of exponential growth and the necessity to act at a time when most people think that there is still ample time to do so. It is still current, now more than ever.
With record-high numbers looming or already here, politicians are finally discovering mandatory vaccination. While it would be too late to break the curve, it will be useful to prevent yet another surge in 2022. And there'd be a chance for it to be written into future pandemic laws.
