Good. Bad. Worse.
Vaccination goal missed – Tunisia's dream is over
The good:
Portugal, Spain and possibly Italy have high enough vaccination rates AND have not abolished their mask/distancing rules and hence they should not suffer much during winter. Always provided that nobody gives in to populism and abolishes the mask/distancing mandate.
The bad but ultimately good:
The rest of Western Europe (including the Baltic states) have the potential to get through this because skyrocketing numbers shake up the politicians and could bring real change. Things could thus ease early next year.
Britain's full vaccination rate is still too low but the boosters are coming along nicely. Numbers might ease a little but remain dangerously high throughout the winter. Vaccination will prevent a surge of deaths but the ITUs (ICUs) will remain full. Britain's biggest enemy is complacency.
The bad:
Eastern Europe is as polarised as the US and that is reflected in the vaccination rate. I am confident though that their numbers should eventually come down during 2022, albeit much later than its western cousins. This is with the exception of Rumania and Bulgaria with their incompetent governments, as well as Russia whose people are dying from the lies their own media have fed them (and Western nations through social media) for decades.
Tunisia sees its numbers go flat at a level that is probably unsustainable. With a full vaccination rate at 40%, there is a big risk of a flare-up if mask/distancing mandates were to be eased or simply not being followed.
The very bad:
In the USA, SARS-CoV-2 has a strong potential to become endemic and thus widen the societal rift. King County (≈ Seattle metro area) in Washington State will become an island of hope but the risk of infection will not diminish throughout 2022.
| Daily Incidence | Daily ICU | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 28.2 ↗︎ | 3.4 → | 0.348 → | 07.5 % ↑ | 15.7 % | → |
| WA State | 22.0 ↘︎ | 2.0 ↘︎ | 0.313 ↘︎ | 10.5 % | →↗︎ | |
| Britain | 59.6 ↗︎ | 1.4 → | 0.219 ↘︎ | 04.4 % ↗︎ | 13.4 % | ↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 23.9 ↑ | 1.7 ↗︎ | 0.067 ↗︎ | 04.2 % ↑ | 12.7 % | ↗︎ |
| Germany | 56.1 ↑ | 3.8 ↑ | 0.236 ↑ | 18.5 % ↑ | 06.0 % | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 00.6 ↗︎ | 0.4 ↘︎ | 0.034 ↘︎ | 02.4 % ↓ | 20.2 % | ↘︎ |
My graphs ends in March of 2022 because I had hoped that by then the vaccine plus mask and distancing mandates would have given us all enough protection to then let go. In the months and years to follow, some of us would have got infected but yearly or bi-yearly vaccinations would have kept the number of fatalities as low as what we used to experience with the flu every year.
And we would have returned to living the lives of before Corona. Or almost. Because some mask wearing would have remained, in public transportation maybe.
I was obviously wrong.
And thus, I will need to expand the timeline of the graphs by several months. Again.
