Analysis – Saturday, 13 November 2021

Germany Going Through The Roof
Other Western European Countries Are Following

I am worried about Germany. The hope was: paid tests = more vaccination; and this backfired royally. So now, they are re-introducing free SARS-CoV-2 tests. The slow-moving German mind is also realising that die-hard deniers cannot be reached by "nice" measures, so maybe a vaccination mandate for certain professions will come (unbelievable: there are still un-vaccination care personnel in retirement homes).

But let's not get complacent. All countries with full vaccination rates below 80% are in danger. Which means, in the EU, only Spain and Portugal (and the tiny Malta) are safe.

British incidence is coming down and the government is pointing fingers at the continent. In reality though, given the poor full vaccination rate plus ITU (ICU) and death rates plateauing at a too-high level, there is nothing to be proud about. 

In the USA, high incidences have moved from the south to the north, which can partially be attributed to indoor life in the approaching cold season. But across all states, numbers remain high and are not expected to come down to a point where it makes a difference.
After some recent Europe-bashing in the light of re-opening of the borders, the realisation is currently setting in that the US is set for stuck numbers

Tunisia has added a huge number of newly infected to the statistic. It remains to be seen if this is just a case of data consolidation or if incidence is really on an upswing. Given the still far too low vaccination rate, 

Summary

 Daily incidence, deaths and ICU occupancy are 7-day averages per 100K people based on reported numbers.
Actual number might be higher. Arrows = tendency.
Daily death projections from 3 November up to late February 2022 assume the continuation of current measures.
See explanations on the help page.

 Daily
Incidence
Daily
ICU
Daily
Deaths
Daily
Pos. Rate
Average
Excess 
Death  
Death
Projection
USA24.1 ↗︎3.4 ↘︎0.350 ↗︎06.5 % ↘︎15.7 %
WA State24.1 ↘︎2.3 →0.287 ↘︎ 10.4 %
Britain52.2 ↘︎1.5 ↗︎0.231 →03.9 % ↘︎13.5 %↗︎↘︎
France13.1 ↑1.6 ↗︎0.051 ↗︎03.3 % ↑12.8 %↗︎
Germany42.4 ↑3.0 ↑0.194 ↑15.9 % ↑05.9 %↗︎↘︎
Tunisia03.0 ↗︎0.5 ↘︎0.054 ↘︎10.5 % ↑20.4 %↘︎

German-speaking countries are most unvaccinated in Western Europe

I just discovered something disturbing. Here is a graph put together by the Financial Times.
What does the language have to do with the willingness to get vaccinated?
One explanation: Germany and possibly Austria love alternative medicine. As far as I know, homeopathic "medicine" is still covered by some health insurers. 
Then there is the "internet" or more precisely, Facebook, which many Germans think is THE internet. Maybe the German version of social media are even more alternative universe-instilling that those in other languages. Judging by the number of delusional people in my village, who look utterly sane until you ask them about chemtrails, there are more than is possibly healthy for a population. 


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