Analysis – Saturday, 9 October 2021

Full vaccination of 75-80% seems to do it
But it needs to be combined with other protective measures

But first, let me mention the discrepancy between reported and actual incidence numbers in Western countries (USA, Canada and Western Europe), including the well-vaccinated Denmark and Spain. This is caused by declining testing rates. Actual infection numbers are therefore between 2x (USA) and 10x (Spain) higher than the reported numbers.
On the graphs below, this is indicated by the turquoise dot (actual incidence) above the dark blue line (reported incidence).

Next, let's talk about the two indicators that matter most, ICU (ITU) and death numbers. These are directly caused by a rising incidence. In Western countries they are projected to remain high (USA) or to increase (Canada and Western Europe) throughout winter. These numbers are largely driven by the unvaccinated.

And now, we get to the point: As we all know, the good thing about being vaccinated is that an infection will (most likely) not land you in an ICU or kill you. Your positive test, however, will make the statistic look bad. If, however, you are an unvaccinated cretin, chances are 10x higher that you will end up in an ICU or that you will die. 

Thus, the lower the vaccination rate in a country, the higher the likelihood that a high incidence will be followed by a surge in ICU cases and subsequent deaths during the coming cold months.

But what is the protective rate?

In Spain, the full vaccination rate is close to 79% and the high actual incidence is projected to affect neither ICU numbers nor deaths. Denmark has a full vaccination rate of 75%. Without the mask mandate, as it is currently the case, ICU and death numbers are projected to increase in January. In Britain, France and Germany, the full vaccination rate is around 65%. ICU occupancy and deaths are projected to increase a lot over the winter even with masks.

There are, in most likelihood, other factors to consider, but by a very crude calculation, a full vaccination rate of 75-80% (with EU-approved vaccines) combined with a mild form of mask mandate and social distancing could protect a country from a spike of ICU and death numbers during the cold months.

With a little prodding and coercing, 75-80% full vaccination should be achievable in most Western countries, including Tunisia, and probably most of Eastern EU (minus Romania and Bulgaria). This number does not apply to countries whose main vaccine had a low effectiveness, such as the ones from China.