Analysis – Saturday, 25 September 2021

The Calm Before The Storm ?
Numbers are stabilising or going down but projections call for worse

But there is one exception: Only a month ago, Tunisia had one of the highest incidences and extremely bad death data, and this week, the country is seemingly leading the pack. Seemingly, because it is only the rate of new infections that is low and not yet the other two indicators; and because the real infection rate is probably 5x higher than the reported one. Nevertheless, the president decreed the end of the nationwide curfew and allowed the lifting of restrictions for the fully vaccinated (TAP), a measure that could be considered premature at a full vaccination rate of not even 30%.

The countries of the Western world seem to sort themselves by what can be defined as 1. good protection of the population (by either a high vaccination rate or a mask/distancing mandate) or 2. diminished protection of the population (by a medium vaccination rate and perhaps even combined with a relaxed mask/distancing mandate). The former (Western Europe) will see their numbers decline and the latter (USA, Britain) will see numbers remain at a relatively high level, risking the regional near-collapse of health care systems. The upcoming cold season are projected push numbers up again in both cases.