Analysis – Saturday, 10 July 2021

England Slated To Become World's Largest Field Laboratory

Delta has arrived: British numbers have been going up for weeks, the USA's incidence and ICU (ITU) occupancy are on the rise, France's and Germany's incidence is following suit. The variant spreads among the unvaccinated and, in the light of stalling vaccination rates, mask wearing and distancing remain the only defence. As it stands now, England's mask mandate will fall on 19 July, and Boris' populism will probably push numbers up even more steeply. 

Vaccination fatigue has now reached Germany, while France is probably only two weeks behind of which the USA has been suffering for weeks. It is almost touching to see the jab incentives that are being invented all over the world — a mere drop in the ocean because new variants will develop faster than good intentions. If we are serious about herd immunity, we need mandatory vaccination of everybody age 12 and above. Scientists seem to have given up on that idea because when it comes to "children" (a term incorrectly used for the 12-18 year olds), they keep citing the importance of a direct benefit of a vaccination for this age group because they rarely get severely ill (BBC). But young adults do pass the virus on to the older, and hence vaccinating them will have the indirect benefit of eradicating the disease for all.

With the only alternative being a civil war, the USA as a whole will certainly never reach herd immunity. Instead, the existing divide between affluent/educated/Democrat-leaning and religious/poor/Republican-leaning regions will widen. Covid-19 will become endemic and US nationals could be met with restrictions when travelling to other countries.

In Tunisia, the situation is deteriorating with the health minister reporting that the health system has collapsed (Al Jazeera).