Delta USA
Is the EU next?
The delta variant is responsible for the recent incidence rise in the USA, which is predominantly owed to the unvaccinated. Its effect on the ICU numbers is also noticeable. Even "blue" WA State sees ICU numbers fall more slowly and its test-positive rate is above 5%, foreshadowing the new, more proliferative variant.
In Germany and France, the incidence curve is reverting course and R-values have been climbing for three weeks in a row. Britain continues its upward trend.
The most positive that can be said about Tunisia which is otherwise grappling with Covid-19, is that its vaccination rate is now at par with that of the USA. The latter, of course, has been declining for three months, which is owed to a large segment of the population living in an alternative reality.
| Daily Incidence | Daily Deaths | Daily ICU | Daily Pos. Rate | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 04.1 ↗︎ | 0.077 ↘︎ | 1.1 ↘︎ | 02.8 % ↗︎ | 15.8 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 04.8 ↘︎ | 0.086 ↘︎ | 0.3 ↘︎ | 05.7 % ↗︎ | 08.8 % | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 32.8 ↗︎ | 0.026 ↗︎ | 0.4 ↗︎ | 01.8 % ↑ | 15.3 % | ↗︎ |
| France | 03.1 ↘︎ | 0.042 ↘︎ | 2.2 ↘︎ | 00.8 % → | 15.2 % | ↘︎ |
| Germany | 00.7 ↘︎ | 0.048 ↘︎ | 0.8 ↘︎ | 00.6 % ↘︎ | 07.0 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 40.8 ↗︎ | 0.831 ↗︎ | 63.7 % ↑ | 15.7 % | ↘︎↗︎ |
No remarks this week.
But I could have written about a 20 000-year old Corona outbreak (NYT, PDF) and what it means for today. Will this epidemic take more than just a few years to overcome?
Or I could have commented on Dr Fauci predicting "two Americas" (The Independent), the vaccinated and the under-vaccinated states, which follow along the usual red-blue divide.
And, did you know that Germany has had people living on the moon for weeks now? And even on its back side? These are astronauts from the STIKO unit (Standing Committee on Vaccination) who recommend COVID vaccine only for minors with health conditions rather than all. The latter, of course, would be a necessary step on the way to herd immunity, which is probably the only exit out of this 1.5-year merry-go-round.
And then there is the sad story of last summer, which was, incidentally, one year ago. Too long for anybody to remember. Numbers were low and people thought that everything was over – and acted accordingly. And now it is summer again, and we have the vaccine. Yet, our hospital and mortality numbers are not lower than they were last year (not even the incidence is) and we are doing exactly the same things as last year. (Not to forget about the ship called Earth that is on collision course with an iceberg, which we all pray will melt before we hit it).
How can one not lose confidence in humanity?