Hiccups on the way to a new normal (in the affluent world)
Openings and no-mask rules are definitely premature but people want freedom.
In countries with sufficient vaccination, (USA, Britain, Germany, France, Sweden) non-vaccinated people continue to push incidence up or keep it from going down and/or cause prolonged ICU stays (because patients become younger) and/or unnecessary deaths. It is therefore laudable that young adults are starting to get vaccinated as well.
In countries with too little vaccination (or those using an essentially ineffective vaccine, such as Sinovac) and poor distancing measures, numbers will remain high for many months to come (Brazil), have exploded and are on the way down (India, which probably has as many daily deaths as Brazil, albeit undocumented) or are projected to go through the roof before going down (Tunisia, which, in reality, also has Brazil's daily death numbers). These countries are predominantly found in Africa and Southern Asia.
In countries where Covid-19 is under control, there remains a low number of new daily cases (New Zealand), accompanied by brief local lockdowns or other measures (Australia), which is going to be the new normal for the world.
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Average Excess Death | Death Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 28.6 → | 0.866 → | 1.03 → | 26.6 % | ↗︎↘︎ | |
| USA | 06.7 ↘︎ | 0.206 ↗︎ | 03.6 % ↘︎ | 0.91 → | 16.7 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 13.7 → | 0.131 ↘︎ | 10.4 % ↑ | 0.97 ↑ | 09.2 % | ↘︎ |
| France | 14.0 ↘︎ | 0.182 ↘︎ | 02.8 % ↘︎ | 0.88 ↑ | 16.0 % | ↘︎ |
| Sweden | 14.3 ↓ | 0.120 → | 07.7 % ↓ | 0.71 ↓ | 12.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 04.2 ↗︎ | 0.012 → | 00.3 % ↗︎ | 1.05 ↗︎ | 16.5 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 05.8 ↓ | 0.182 ↘︎ | 04.8 % ↓ | 0.72 ↓ | 07.3 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 11.0 ↗︎ | 0.448 ↘︎ | 21.3 % ↗︎ | 0.99 ↑ | 13.9 % | ↗︎ ↘︎ |
| New Zealand | 00.1 → | 0.000 → | 00.0 % ↘︎ | 0.87 ↓ | 00.1 % | |
| India | 14.9 ↘︎ | 0.279 → | 10.4 % ↓ | 0.83 ↓ | 04.0 % | ↘︎ |
I am currently waiting for my second jab of the RNA vaccine. Two weeks later I will have myself tested for the presence of neutralising antibodies. If present in my blood, I will assume that I am sufficiently protected for travelling even into regions where the virus is still rampant.
I know very well that I can still get sick, but it will, at its worst, be like a severe cold.
I also know that I will be able to get infected without showing symptoms and that I can pass on the virus. For this reason, I will don my mask when in the company of unvaccinated people.
When in the company of people unwilling to get vaccinated (but able to) and unwilling to wear a mask or use distancing measures, I shall refrain from wearing my mask as well because I will not go out of my way to protect people who play roulette with other peoples' lives.