Overall optimistic
But let's not forget the gross injustice in the world distribution of vaccine (see remarks)
The haves have a first-world problem: to remain calm while freedom is itching. Bad acting can no longer derail the train, only delay it and thus prolong the (perceived) agony.
The have-nots are faced with months of poor outcome. Bad acting cannot make matter much worse but prolong the (real) agony.
I have included a new graph to point out the sharply declining vaccination rate in the USA. If this cannot be remedied, it may well be that US visitors to the EU will be treated like people coming from tropical countries: they have to prove for years to come that they do not carry the disease while visitors from other countries can enter freely.
An interesting observation: Comparing Germany and the USA (lower incidence but higher death rate) to France, Sweden and Washington (higher incidence but lower death rate), it seems as if incidence and death number were not to go hand in hand at all. This shows that political decisions on reopening should not be based on incidence alone.
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Average Excess Death | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 30.7 ↗︎ | 0.930 → | 1.03 → | 25.8 % | ↗︎↘︎ | |
| USA | 08.3 ↘︎ | 0.169 ↘︎ | 04.1 % ↘︎ | 0.90 ↗︎ | 16.8 % | ↘︎ |
| WA State | 12.6 ↘︎ | 0.135 ↘︎ | 05.4 % ↓ | 0.85 ↘︎ | 09.2 % | ↘︎ |
| France | 14.9 ↘︎ | 0.162 ↘︎ | 04.0 % ↘︎ | 0.78 ↗︎ | 16.1 % | ↘︎ |
| Sweden | 30.0 ↘︎ | 0.129 ↘︎ | 09.2 % ↘︎ | 0.94 ↘︎ | 12.6 % | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 02.4 ↘︎ | 0.009 ↓ | 00.2 % → | 1.00 ↗︎ | 16.7 % | ↓ |
| Germany | 10.0 ↘︎ | 0.219 ↘︎ | 06.3 % ↓ | 0.86 → | 07.4 % | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 09.1 → | 0.498 ↘︎ | 20.1 % ↘︎ | 0.83 ↘︎ | 13.8 % | ↘︎↗︎ ↘︎ |
| New Zealand | 00.1 → | 0.000 → | 00.0 % ↗︎ | 1.27 ↑ | 00.1 % | → |
| India | 19.8 ↘︎ | 0.303 ↗︎ | 14.6 % ↓ | 0.94 ↓ | 04.0 % | ↘︎ |
Seventy percent of all vaccination doses have been administered in only seven countries, 30% in China alone (see table). While working with absolute numbers is disingenuous, it follows the scaremongering of the media (be they social, mass or class) with one goal: awareness.
In this case, it is the awareness that the other 140 countries share the remaining 30%, of which most lie in Africa.
And why should that scare us?
Because these countries will continue to develop virus mutations that, in a few months, will come to haunt the other 7 countries. These countries will have numbers resembling those of Brazil or Tunisia.
The good news are that the world is aware of the issue and effort is under way to get the underdog countries vaccinated to achieve 60% total world vaccination, but only late in 2022 (and probably not even that).