Patience is hard
But we could be rewarded by a beautiful Indian Summer.
In the countries with vaccine, a decrease in deaths and, after a delay, ICU numbers is foreseeable. France, Germany and Sweden may see this differently because their ICUs are currently filling up to the detriment of patients with "regular" diseases, and in some places to or above capacity. However, these countries are speeding up their vaccine efforts and it is paramount that they do not relax their distancing measures until the 40+ generation, the one that is most often found in the ICU, has been vaccinated.
Britain, having overcome its own variant, is already ahead of the game but we see a slight bump in the numbers, which may or may not foreshadow a stalling of the decrease, especially if the return to normality were to be too fast and / or poorly planned.
The USA, as the sum of all states, is giving a mixed image. ICU numbers are increasing here, too, and death numbers are no longer declining as nicely as they did two weeks prior. Some states, California included, are doing well but others, red on the heat map, see an inexplicable surge in new infections. Washington State's numbers are puzzling but it seems as if the decline of death numbers had come to a halt (albeit at a low level other nations are only dreaming about). The IHME even projects a slight increase and some counties are wisely delaying their reopening strategies.
In countries without vaccine or with slow rollout, death numbers remain predictably high. They are increasing dramatically in Tunisia to a projected new record level because measures had been relaxed prematurely and people are too unconcerned. In Brazil, death numbers remain extremely high and are projected to come down just a little and the health system might have collapsed already some time ago (DW).
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Average Excess Death | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 30.9 ↗︎ | 1.383 ↗︎ | 0.96 ↘︎ | 23.5% | ↘︎ | |
| USA | 20.7 ↗︎ | 0.219 → | 04.4% ↘︎ | 1.00 → | 17.5% | →↘︎ |
| WA State | 18.0 ↗︎ | 0.071 ? | 05.8% ↗︎ | 1.10 → | 09.3% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 68.0 ↗︎ | 0.541 ↗︎ | 09.7% ↑ | 0.98 ↘︎ | 16.2% | ↘︎ |
| Sweden | 60.5 ↘︎ | 0.236 ↗︎ | 13.9% ↑ | 1.20 ↓ | 13.0% | ↘︎ |
| Britain | 03.6 ↘︎ | 0.039 ↓ | 00.3% → | 0.85 ↘︎ | 18.0% | ↓ |
| Germany | 24.9 ↗︎ | 0.270 ↗︎ | 10.0% ↑ | 1.18 ↑ | 07.3% | ↘︎ |
| Rhein-Neckar | 18.9 → | 0.073 → | 06.3% | |||
| Tunisia | 16.5 ↗︎ | 0.580 ↗︎ | 28.1% ↑ | 1.26 ↓ | 11.9% | ↑↘︎ |
| New Zealand | 00.0 → | 0.000 → | 00.1% ↓ | 0.81 ↓ | 0.07% | → |
The rich countries are in the process of overcoming what makes the disease so dangerous: deaths and hospitalisations. Therefore, a high incidence is no longer the threat it used to be and, when vaccination will eventually have reached the younger population, the number of new infections will go down as well.
This said, front runner Britain has demonstrated that this success cannot be achieved by vaccination alone. Distancing, mask wearing, contact tracing and, if necessary, quarantining has played a significant role and some of these measures will remain in place until the chances of a renewed flaring-up of the disease is close to zero. The reason for this still lies in the most dangerous feature of SARS-CoV-2: the high percentage of infections without symptoms. This has caused the rapid spread of the virus in the first place and remains its main danger.
The other danger is that the majority of the world population will remain un- or under-vaccinated for months if not years and will breed new variants, which could eventually become new virus strains. Thus, when we start moving around the planet, the need for testing and contact tracing will be here to stay. But there is more.
But not all is bad. Pfizer just stated that a third vaccination might be necessary 12 months later, which would then become a yearly, single-jab vaccination, not unlike the flu shots. This vaccine would then be adjusted for the variants and Covid-19 will have morphed into a manageable disease.
And future epidemics?
Countries in the Pacific East have demonstrated the will to give up personal freedom in exchange for a swift return to normal. One reason for this was a history of pandemics that had been limited to that region. Countries in the rest of the world need to embrace the same willingness and adjust their laws accordingly and create or strengthen institutions that will allow them to react to new pandemics within hours rather than weeks. New pandemics are predicted to come rather sooner than later because three of the enabling factors are slated to worsen: World population, world travel and climate change.
