Battles will be won but the war won't be over for years to come
Our new reality will be to live with the virus, a little bit like it has been with the flu but with more surveillance and more vigilance. We will also live with more precautions, like we learnt to do with AIDS.
The British data teach us two things: (a) death rate can become uncoupled from incidence and (b) vaccination can beat the British variant. Thus, until the most recent variants arrive (e.g. from India), other countries can beat it, too.
The New Zealand data teach us that even with incidences ridiculously low, we need to brace ourselves for continued protection, contact tracing and, if necessary, localised lockdowns (as in Brisbane, yes, Australia, but they are doing similarly well). If you look closely, NZ deaths are even projected to rise a little in late July.
But for now, even the U.S. with a relatively good vaccination rate sees cases spike and ICU occupancy rise. This situation is worse where vaccination lags behind, including France, Germany and Sweden. Brazil has a near-zero vaccination rate and it deaths are going through the roof (but numbers seem to be going down). Likewise, Tunisia is expected to see a huge spike in deaths.
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Average Excess Death | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 44.4 → | 1.757 ↗︎ | 1.04 ↘︎ | 22.5% | ↑↘︎ | |
| USA | 20.1 ↗︎ | 0.302↗︎ | 05.0% ↑ | 1.00 ↘︎ | 17.7% | →↘︎ |
| WA State | 14.4 ↗︎ | 0.103 → | 05.5% ↑ | 1.10 → | 09.5% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 52.0 ↘︎ | 0.445 ↘︎ | 07.8% ↗︎ | 1.08 ↓ | 16.1% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Sweden | 51.5 ↗︎ | 0.137 ↗︎ | 10.2% ↘︎ | 1.38 ↑ | 13.1% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Britain | 04.3 ↘︎ | 0.046 ↓ | 00.4% → | 0.90 ↗︎ | 18.3% | ↓ |
| Germany | 17.3 ↗︎ | 0.211 ↗︎ | 08.9% ↗︎ | 1.07 ↓ | 07.3% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Rhein-Neckar | 13.7 → | 0.049 → | 06.3% | |||
| Tunisia | 14.3 ↑ | 0.348 ↗︎ | 25.3% ↑ | 1.35 ↑ | 11.5% | ↑↘︎ |
| New Zealand | 00.0 → | 0.000 → | 00.2% ↗︎ | 0.91 ↓ | 0.07% | → |
The new SARS-CoV-2 variants are almost new viruses in that their properties need to be researched anew. We know that the British variant B.1.1.7, which has by now conquered most of the world, is more proliferative and more deadly. Researchers at the Pasteur Institute have now determined that 90% of the adult population would need to be vaccinated before a society (in this case the French) could return to a normal life (meaning no masks nor distancing) without the risk of a rebound (PDF). Previously, scientists have assumed that at small as a 70% vaccination rate would be enough for herd immunity. This now stands corrected.
What does this mean?
A) To achieve the 90%, vaccination must be made mandatory. There is no way, 90% can be achieved voluntarily within the short timeframe that we are looking into.
B) Regions that relax the mask mandate or the distancing rules before 90% are reached risk a rebound of the disease.
While we may have won battles in some regions of the world, the war is not over for presumably years to come.