(Very) cautiously optimistic
The warmer weather will allow for more outdoor activities, which will soothe our damaged souls in times when numbers might not be coming down as fast as hoped for and distancing measures might need to be prolonged.
Our big saviour, vaccination, is not coming fast enough to compensate for the more aggressive virus strains. Therefore continued distancing measures are called for at a time when people are demanding more freedom and increasingly seeking small personal (and risky) escapes.
If you look at the vaccination graph, the nations are all huddled at the bottom and even frontrunner Israel, with a >60% rate has only 30% of its population protected, which is a far cry from herd immunity. While Israel had an easy start, its vaccination progress has slowed down considerably because after having captured the willing, who is now left are the less-than-willing and the sceptics.
Testing: Tunisia and to a certain degree Germany are falling behind, which means that their number of "cases" should be higher than reported. This is also reflected in their far too high test-positive rates. Britain, on the other hand, has increased its test numbers considerably and hence its decline in incidence is real. Sweden, too, expanded their test capacity but their incidence is not falling, indicating that there remains a strong chance of getting infected.
| Daily Infections | Daily Deaths | Daily Pos. Rate | R value | Average Excess Death | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 21.6 → | 0.507 ↗︎ | 17.7% | → | ||
| US minus 3 | 28.4 ↘︎ | 0.910 ↗︎ | 06.7% ↗︎ | 0.88 → | 16.1% | ↘︎ |
| California | 26.4 ↓ | 1.077 ↘︎ | 04.3% ↘︎ | 0.83 ↗︎ | 16.7% | ↘︎↗︎↘︎ |
| Washington | 15.5 ↗︎ | 0.407 ↗︎ | 04.9% ↘︎ | 0.85↘︎ | 09.5% | |
| New York | 46.4 ↘︎ | 0.706 ↘︎ | 04.0% ↘︎ | 0.98 ↗︎ | 24.4% | ↘︎↗︎↘︎ |
| France | 27.8 → | 0.606 ↗︎ | 06.1% ↘︎ | 0.98 ↘︎ | 15.5% | ↗︎↘︎ |
| Britain | 19.1 ↓ | 1.012 ↘︎ | 02.3% ↓ | 0.75 ↘︎ | 19.4% | ↘︎ |
| Tunisia | 07.6 ↘︎ | 0.436 ↘︎ | 22.1% ↘︎ | 1.13 ↓ | 11.0% | ↘︎ |
| Sweden | 28.8 ↗︎ | 0.443 ↘︎ | 10.4% ↗︎ | 1.25 → | 13.9% | →↘︎ |
| Germany | 09.1 ↘︎ | 0.594 ↘︎ | 07.2% → | 0.79 ↘︎ | 07.0% | ↘︎ |
| New Zealand | 00.0 → | 0.000 → | 00.0% → | 0.76 → | 00.1% | → |
| Rhein-Neckar | 08.7 ↘︎ | 0.244 → | 06.8% |
Remarks On Fake Certificates
What would you pay for a document that allows you to visit cinemas, restaurants or shops, fly to a remote holiday destination and stay on a nice beach in the sun? You have saved a little money because you did not travel in the last year, so you could spend maybe 1000 € on a perfectly faked vaccination certificate.
While there are the obvious medical and scientific reasons why certificates are not a good idea (transmission of the virus while yourself are protected, some percentage will not be protected at all), anything can be forged if the price is right. Pair that with the prospect of freedom from the confines of lockdown and that certificate could rekindle the pandemic.
Not likely you think? Test certificates have been faked and are being faked. The BBC published a story on a traveller who bought a false test certificate to save ⅔ of the cost of a real one.
And when Tunisia opened their borders last July, they received a lot of rich tourists from the Emirates, Turkey and Algeria. A lot of them faked their Corona tests. Tunisian officials think that that was one of the reasons for the comeback of the virus.