Analysis – Saturday, 6 February 2021

Good numbers might not last
In most countries numbers are decreasing or are bound to do so and restrictions are increasingly being eased as a consequence. But the new virus mutations seem to have a bigger impact than initially thought and could push numbers up again. This is already the case in Portugal, where average daily deaths have risen above 2.600 per 100 000, a number surpassing anything seen in this blog.

Britain is coming down from its world-leading high numbers, thanks to mostly discipline (an English virtue of bygone times but apparently unearthed recently). Across the Channel, the French are going on winter holiday while their numbers are on the rise. French TV pictures vacationers being served food in their hotel rooms, which is in stark contrast to Germany's austere lockdown and curfew life, where, incidentally, numbers at the lower end of the European ranking. But German daily death numbers show signs of rising after trending flat a week ago. Mask wearing came late to Sweden, which has caused it the worst death numbers among its equally stoic Scandinavian neighbours. And, as if to punish the country for past mistakes, daily fatalities are predicted to not decline much for the next three months.

Tunisia was hard hit and is still waiting for the vaccine, as do the majority of African countries except Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. But in spite of its scarce health resources and, in June, the fatal mistake of opening the borders, the country is weaning itself off the high numbers.

In the Americas, Brazil's numbers are stalling and while vaccination has started and numbers are predicted to go down, poor management and infrastructure combined with an unwilling political leadership and a high number of poor people will probably make numbers remain relatively high for months to come.
California's incidence has fallen sharply for weeks, the R value is below 1 and the testing rate is superb. Well done. But daily death numbers remain high and are not predicted to come down in the coming three months. Likewise, New York State could see a stalling if not an increase in daily deaths over the coming months in spite of falling incidence and perfect R value. Washington State is on the right trajectory but the remaining U.S. will have a harder time getting the numbers down.